相关论文: Bayesian Modelling of Lexis Mortality Data

Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…

Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

Accurate mortality modeling is central to actuarial science and public health, especially as mental health emerges as a significant factor in population outcomes. This paper develops and applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze U.S.…

Identifying frail older adults in an ageing population is essential for improving healthcare services. This study proposes a composite indicator to assess individual frailty levels using administrative healthcare data. Given the complex and…

In low-resource settings where vital registration of death is not routine it is often of critical interest to determine and study the cause of death (COD) for individuals and the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for populations.…

In epidemiology, the person-years method is broadly used to estimate the incidence rates of health related events. This needs determination of time at risk stratified by period, age and sometimes by duration of disease or exposition. The…

We introduce a square lattice into the Penna bit-string model for biological ageing and study the evolution of the spatial distribution of the population considering different strategies of child-care. Two of the strategies are related to…

In recurrent event studies, panel binary data arise when subjects are observed at discrete time points and only the recurrent event status within each observation window is recorded. Such data frequently occur in longitudinal studies due to…

Determining causes of deaths (COD) occurred outside of civil registration and vital statistics systems is challenging. A technique called verbal autopsy (VA) is widely adopted to gather information on deaths in practice. A VA consists of…

Ageing's sensitivity to natural selection has long been discussed because of its apparent negative effect on individual's fitness. Thanks to the recently described (Smurf) 2-phase model of ageing we were allowed to propose a fresh angle for…

This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…

This paper proposes a robust Bayesian accelerated failure time model for censored survival data. We develop a new family of life-time distributions using a scale mixture of the generalized gamma distributions, where we propose a novel super…

End-stage renal disease has many adverse complications associated with it leading to 20-50% higher mortality rates in people than those without the disease. This makes it one of the leading causes of death in the United States. This article…

The ubiquitous appearance of regions of localized deformation (shear bands) in different kinds of disordered materials under shear is studied in the context of a mesoscopic model of plasticity. The model may or may not include relaxational…

This paper describes a method for a model-based analysis of clinical safety data called multivariate Bayesian logistic regression (MBLR). Parallel logistic regression models are fit to a set of medically related issues, or response…

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial…

Stroke is the second most frequent cause of death world wide with an annual mortality of around 5.5 million. Recurrence rates of stroke are between 5 and 25% in the first year. As mortality rates for relapses are extraordinarily high (40%)…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…