相关论文: Bayesian Modelling of Lexis Mortality Data

We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the…

Dynamical phenomena such as infectious diseases are often investigated by following up subjects longitudinally, thus generating time to event data. The spatial aspect of such data is also of primordial importance, as many infectious…

Complex systems research is becomingly increasingly data-driven, particularly in the social and biological domains. Many of the systems from which sample data are collected feature structural heterogeneity at the mesoscopic scale (i.e.…

We present a workflow for clinical data analysis that relies on Bayesian Structure Learning (BSL), an unsupervised learning approach, robust to noise and biases, that allows to incorporate prior medical knowledge into the learning process…

We propose a method of estimating the Total Loss of Healthy Life Years based on the first exit time theory for a stochastic process, the resulting Health State Function and the Deterioration Function estimated as the curvature of the health…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

Understanding and forecasting mortality by cause is an essential branch of actuarial science, with wide-ranging implications for decision-makers in public policy and industry. To accurately capture trends in cause-specific mortality, it is…

We consider Bayesian hierarchical models for survival analysis, where the survival times are modeled through an underlying diffusion process which determines the hazard rate. We show how these models can be efficiently treated by means of…

All-cause mortality is a very coarse grain, albeit very reliable, index to check the health implications of lifestyle determinants, systemic threats and socio-demographic factors. In this work we adopt a statistical-mechanics approach to…

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) presents a significant public health challenge, often resulting in mortality or lasting disability. Predicting outcomes such as mortality and Functional Status Scale (FSS) scores can enhance treatment strategies…

The number of recurrent events before a terminating event is often of interest. For instance, death terminates an individual's process of rehospitalizations and the number of rehospitalizations is an important indicator of economic cost. We…

Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…

Switzerland experienced one of the warmest summers during 2022. Extreme heat has been linked to increased mortality. Monitoring the mortality burden attributable to extreme heat is crucial to inform policies, such as heat warnings, and…

This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework features three states: (1) a baseline state that captures…

We analyze binary data, available for a relatively large number (big data) of families (or households), which are within small areas, from a population-based survey. Inference is required for the finite population proportion of individuals…

The aim of this paper is to study the construction of prospective mortality tables from a low number of persons subjected to risk. The presented models are the Lee-Carter and log-Poisson methods respectively. The low number of people…

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…

This paper is not (or at least not only) about human infant mortality. In line with reliability theory, "infant" will refer here to the time interval following birth during which the mortality (or failure) rate decreases. This definition…

Within-individual variability of health indicators measured over time is becoming commonly used to inform about disease progression. Simple summary statistics (e.g. the standard deviation for each individual) are often used but they are not…

Background: While deep learning technology, which has the capability of obtaining latent representations based on large-scale data, can be a potential solution for the discovery of a novel aging biomarker, existing deep learning methods for…