相关论文: Multilevel Monte Carlo for uncertainty quantificat…

In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same…

Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…

Particle deposition in fully-developed turbulent pipe flow is quantified taking into account uncertainty in electric charge, van der Waals strength, and temperature effects. A framework is presented for obtaining variance-based sensitivity…

Random field Monte Carlo (MC) reliability analysis is a robust stochastic method to determine the probability of failure. This method, however, requires a large number of numerical simulations demanding high computational costs. This paper…

Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for studying the equilibrium properties of matter. In complex condensed-phase systems, however, it is difficult to design Monte Carlo moves with high acceptance probabilities that also…

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

We present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of variably saturated porous media flow that are modeled using the Richards' equation. We propose a stochastic extension for the empirical models that are…

Two of the most significant challenges in uncertainty quantification pertain to the high computational cost for simulating complex physical models and the high dimension of the random inputs. In applications of practical interest, both of…

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may…

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is highly efficient for estimating expectations of a functional of a solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). However, MLMC estimators may be unstable and have a poor (noncanonical)…

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

We introduce a Monte Carlo Virtual Element estimator based on Virtual Element discretizations for stochastic elliptic partial differential equations with random diffusion coefficients. We prove estimates for the statistical approximation…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an active area of research, and an essential technique used in all fields of science and engineering. The most common methods for UQ are Monte Carlo and surrogate-modelling. The former method is…

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

In this article, we study the application of Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) approaches to numerical random homogenization. Our objective is to compute the expectation of some functionals of the homogenized coefficients, or of the…

We study time harmonic acoustic scattering on large deviation rough random scatterers. Therein, the roughness of the scatterers is caused by a low Sobolev regularity in the covariance function of their deformation field. The motivation for…

The examination of uncertainty in the predictions of machine learning (ML) models is receiving increasing attention. One uncertainty modeling technique used for this purpose is Monte-Carlo (MC)-Dropout, where repeated predictions are…

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…