相关论文: Forecasting the Urban Skyline with Extreme Value T…
Urban scaling, the superlinear increase of social and economic measures with increasing population, is an ubiquitous and well-researched phenomenon. This article is focused on socio-economic performance scaling, which could possibly be…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
Using current empirical data from 10,000 BCE to 2023 CE, we re-examine a hyperbolic pattern of human population growth, which was identified by von Foerster et al. in 1960 with a predicted singularity in 2026. We find that human population…
Floods affected more than 2 billion people worldwide from 1998 to 2017 and their occurrence is expected to increase due to climate warming, population growth and rapid urbanization. Recent approaches for understanding the resilience of…
The recent M5 competition has advanced the state-of-the-art in retail forecasting. However, we notice important differences between the competition challenge and the challenges we face in a large e-commerce company. The datasets in our…
The concept of `proximity-based cities' has gained attention as a new urban organizational model. Most prominently, the 15-minute city contends that cities can function more effectively, equitably and sustainably if essential, everyday…
The concept of city or urban resilience has emerged as one of the key challenges for the next decades. As a consequence, institutions like the United Nations or Rockefeller Foundation have embraced initiatives that increase or improve it.…
The report considers the dynamics of the global population as the unique case of the Socio-Economic Soft Matter system. This category was introduced for complex systems dominated by mesoscale assemblies, emerging due to the inherent…
Urbanization is a common phenomenon in developing countries and it poses serious challenges when not managed effectively. Lack of proper planning and management may cause the encroachment of urban fabrics into reserved or special regions…
The prediction of exceptional or surprising growth in research is an issue with deep roots and few practical solutions. In this study we develop and validate a novel approach to forecasting growth in highly specific research communities.…
The relationships between diversity, productivity and scale determine much of the structure and robustness of complex biological and social systems. While arguments for the link between specialization and productivity are common, diversity…
This paper investigates the use of extreme value theory for modelling the distribution of demand-net-of-wind for capacity adequacy assessment. Extreme value theory approaches are well-established and mathematically justified methods for…
I survey physics theories involving parallel universes, arguing that they form a natural four-level hierarchy of multiverses allowing progressively greater diversity. Level I: A generic prediction of inflation is an infinite ergodic…
Urban population scaling of resource use, creativity metrics, and human behaviors has been widely studied. These studies have not looked in detail at the full range of human environments which represent a continuum from the most rural to…
We present TEMPO, a global, temporally resolved dataset of building density and height derived from high-resolution satellite imagery using deep learning models. We pair building footprint and height data from existing datasets with…
The population size has far-reaching effects on the fitness of the population, that, in its turn influences the population extinction or persistence. Understanding the density- and age-dependent factors will facilitate more accurate…
The nonlinear synergy between global warming and urbanization is amplifying extreme climate risks in cities worldwide. While observations and simulations confirm these compounding effects, two fundamental bottlenecks impede predictive…
Two unavoidable processes punctuate our century: The unprecedented urbanisation of our planet (United Nations, 2014) and the spread of ubiquitous computing (Weiser, 1991) and urban data streams. This process of urbanisation corresponds with…
Forecasting where and when new buildings will emerge is a rather unexplored topic, but one that is very useful in many disciplines such as urban planning, agriculture, resource management, and even autonomous flying. In the present work, we…
This study downscales the population and gross domestic product (GDP) scenarios given under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into 0.5-degree grids. Our downscale approach has the following features: (i) it explicitly considers spatial…