相关论文: On Elo based prediction models for the FIFA Worldc…

Competition is a primary driver of player satisfaction and engagement in multiplayer online games. Traditional matchmaking systems aim at creating matches involving teams of similar aggregated individual skill levels, such as Elo score or…

This paper proposes a model to predict the outcome of the March Madness tournament based on historical NCAA basketball data since 2013. The framework of this project is a simplification of the FiveThrityEight NCAA March Madness prediction…

In recent years, data-driven approaches have become a popular tool in a variety of sports to gain an advantage by, e.g., analysing potential strategies of opponents. Whereas the availability of play-by-play or player tracking data in sports…

In soccer, game context can result in skewing offensive statistics in ways that might misrepresent how well a team has played. For instance, in England's 1-2 loss to France in the 2022 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal, England attempted…

A match played in a sports tournament can be called stakeless if at least one team is indifferent to its outcome because it already has qualified or has been eliminated. Such a game threatens fairness since teams may not exert full effort…

This work is motivated by the analysis of ecological interaction networks. Poisson stochastic blockmodels are widely used in this field to decipher the structure that underlies a weighted network, while accounting for covariate effects.…

We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR)…

We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals…

The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football team from…

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the P\'olya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a…

Playing in the FIFA World Cup finals is an ambition shared by several nations. Since, besides luck and skill, the probability of qualification depends on the design of the qualifiers, the study of these competitions forms an integral part…

A myriad of different data are generated to characterize a soccer match. Here we discuss which performance indicators are particularly helpful to forecast the future results of a team via an estimation of the underlying team strengths with…

We designed a multilayer perceptron neural network to predict the price of a football (soccer) player using data on more than 15,000 players from the football simulation video game FIFA 2017. The network was optimized by experimenting with…

There have been several popular reports of various groups exploiting the deterministic nature of the game of roulette for profit. Moreover, through its history the inherent determinism in the game of roulette has attracted the attention of…

Common election poll reporting is often misleading as sample uncertainty is addressed insufficiently or not covered at all. Furthermore, main interest usually lies beyond the simple party shares. For a more comprehensive opinion poll and…

It was recently observed that Elo ratings fail at preserving transitive relations among strategies and therefore cannot correctly extract the transitive component of a game. We provide a characterization of transitive games as a weak…

The prevalent model by Dixon and Coles (1997) extends the double Poisson model where two independent Poisson distributions model the number of goals scored by each team by moving probabilities between the scores 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1. We…

Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…

The Elo rating system has been used world wide for individual sports and team sports, as exemplified by the European Go Federation (EGF), International Chess Federation (FIDE), International Federation of Association Football (FIFA), and…

Searching for planets analogous to Earth in terms of mass and equilibrium temperature is currently the first step in the quest for habitable conditions outside our Solar System and, ultimately, the search for life in the universe. Future…