相关论文: On Elo based prediction models for the FIFA Worldc…

We propose two Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet models to predict the final outcome of football (soccer) matches and compare them to three well-known models regarding their predictive power. All the models predicted the full-time results of…

This paper develops several interesting, significant, and interconnected approaches to nonparametric or semi-parametric statistical inferences. The overwhelmingly favoured maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under parametric model is…

Probabilistic modeling is an effective tool for evaluating team performance and predicting outcomes in sports. However, an important question that hasn't been fully explored is whether these models can reliably reflect actual performance…

ELO rating system is proposed by Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-American physics professor. Originally, it was proposed for the ranking system of chess players, but it was soon adapted to many other zero-sum sports fields like football, baseball,…

Soccer attracts the attention of many researchers and professionals in the sports industry. Therefore, the incorporation of science into the sport is constantly growing, with increasing investments in performance analysis and sports…

Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and…

In this study, we introduce a novel methodological framework called Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL), designed to address the computational challenges inherent in empirical likelihood (EL) approaches. Our approach has two…

This article presents a Bayesian implementation of a cumulative probit model to forecast the outcomes of the UEFA Champions League matches. The argument of the normal CDF involves a cut-off point, a home vs away playing effect and the…

Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal \'{E}l\H{o}…

We explore past and recent developments in rare-event probability estimation with a particular focus on a novel Monte Carlo technique Empirical Likelihood Maximization (ELM). This is a versatile method that involves sampling from a sequence…

In this research, we examine the capabilities of different mathematical models to accurately predict various levels of the English football pyramid. Existing work has largely focused on top-level play in European leagues; however, our work…

In recent years, great emphasis has been placed on the prediction of association football. Due to this, several studies have proposed different types of statistical models to predict the outcome of a football match. However, most existing…

This paper introduces an innovative application of Large Event Models (LEMs), akin to Large Language Models, to the domain of soccer analytics. By learning the language of soccer - predicting variables for subsequent events rather than…

In this paper, a new continuous scoring system for soccer is proposed, based on the proportion of time that a team is winning, losing or tied. Several simulations are made applying this technique to complete seasons of different leagues. As…

We use a simple machine learning model, logistically-weighted regularized linear least squares regression, in order to predict baseball, basketball, football, and hockey games. We do so using only the thirty-year record of which visiting…

I describe a planning methodology for domains with uncertainty in the form of external events that are not completely predictable. The events are represented by enabling conditions and probabilities of occurrence. The planner is…

Traditional interpretations of probability, whether frequentist or subjective, make no reference to the concept of energy. In this paper, we propose that assigning hypothetical energy levels to the outcomes of a random variable can yield…

This paper presents some useful mathematical results involved in football table prediction. In addition, some empirical results indicate that an alternative methodology for football table prediction may produce high quality forecasts with…

This paper presents an Elo-based rating system for programming contests, specifically Topcoder's Single Round Matches (SRMs). We introduce a logarithmic rank-based performance metric that allows single-round, multi-player contest results to…

The goal of this thesis is to investigate the potential of predictive modelling for football injuries. This work was conducted in close collaboration with Tottenham Hotspurs FC (THFC), the PGA European tour and the participation of…