相关论文: Optimal Unbiased Estimation for Expected Cumulativ…
In this paper, we propose an estimator of the second-order parameter of randomly right-truncated Pareto-type distributions data and establish its consistency and asymptotic normality. Moreover, we derive an asymptotically unbiased estimator…
In this paper, an approach to estimating a nonlinear deterministic model is presented. We introduce a stochastic model with extremely small variances so that the deterministic and stochastic models are essentially indistinguishable from…
The behaviour of a stochastic dynamical system may be largely influenced by those low-probability, yet extreme events. To address such occurrences, this paper proposes an infinite-horizon risk-constrained Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR)…
We propose a sampling-based framework for finite-horizon trajectory and policy optimization under differentiable dynamics by casting controller design as inference. Specifically, we minimize a KL-regularized expected trajectory cost, which…
In applications of imprecise probability, analysts must compute lower (or upper) expectations, defined as the infimum of an expectation over a set of parameter values. Monte Carlo methods consistently approximate expectations at fixed…
The overestimation bias is one of the major impediments to accurate off-policy learning. This paper investigates a novel way to alleviate the overestimation bias in a continuous control setting. Our method---Truncated Quantile Critics,…
We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…
Systematic errors affecting center-of-gravity (CoG) measurements may occur from coarse sampling of the point-spread-function (PSF) or from signal truncation at the boundaries of the region-of-interest (ROI). For small ROI and PSF widths,…
In this paper, we introduce turnpike arguments in the context of optimal state estimation. In particular, we show that the optimal solution of the state estimation problem involving all available past data serves as turnpike for the…
We propose a truncation model for abundance distribution in the species richness estimation. This model is inherently semiparametric and incorporates an unknown truncation threshold between rare and abundant counts observations. Using the…
In this paper we propose a wide class of truncated stochastic approximation procedures with moving random bounds. While we believe that the proposed class of procedures will find its way to a wider range of applications, the main motivation…
The robust multi-product pricing problem is to determine the prices of a collection of products so as to maximize the worst-case revenue, where the worst case is taken over an uncertainty set of demand models that the firm expects could be…
Randomized trials, also known as A/B tests, are used to select between two policies: a control and a treatment. Given a corresponding set of features, we can ideally learn an optimized policy P that maps the A/B test data features to action…
In this research we study a finite horizon optimal purchasing problem for items with a mean reverting price process. Under this model a fixed amount of identical items are bought under a given deadline, with the objective of minimizing the…
This paper explores optimal insurance solutions based on the Lambda-Value-at-Risk ($\Lambda\VaR$). If the expected value premium principle is used, our findings confirm that, similar to the VaR model, a truncated stop-loss indemnity is…
Many insurance premium principles are defined and various estimation procedures introduced in the literature. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the excess-of-loss reinsurance premium when the risks are randomly right-censored.…
We present a new method for estimating the edge of a two-dimensional bounded set, given a finite random set of points drawn from the interior. The estimator is based both on Haar series and extreme values of the point process. We give…
This paper studies the risk-averse mean-variance optimization in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs). The involved variance metric concerns reward variability during the whole process, and future deviations are…
Multi-fidelity methods that use an ensemble of models to compute a Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation of a high-fidelity model can significantly reduce computational costs compared to single-model approaches. These methods use oracle…
We develop methods to solve general optimal stopping problems with opportunities to stop that arrive randomly. Such problems occur naturally in applications with market frictions. Pivotal to our approach is that our methods operate on…