相关论文: Predicting Gross Movie Revenue
Opportunities, such as access to education or family background, shape income inequality by influencing the chances of economic success. Unequal opportunities create uncertainty about whether success is merit- or luck-based. We examine how…
This paper tackles challenges in pricing and revenue projections due to consumer uncertainty. We propose a novel data-based approach for firms facing unknown consumer type distributions. Unlike existing methods, we assume firms only observe…
Time series prediction is a widespread and well studied problem with applications in many domains (medical, geoscience, network analysis, finance, econometry etc.). In the case of multivariate time series, the key to good performances is to…
Corporate insolvency can have a devastating effect on the economy. With an increasing number of companies making expansion overseas to capitalize on foreign resources, a multinational corporate bankruptcy can disrupt the world's financial…
Financial Distress Prediction plays a crucial role in the economy by accurately forecasting the number and probability of failing structures, providing insight into the growth and stability of a country's economy. However, predicting…
Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved to the center of policy, market, and academic debates, but its macroeconomic footprint is still only partly understood. This paper provides an overview on how the current AI wave is captured in US…
We study the statistics of earning forecasts of US, EU, UK and JP stocks during the period 1987-2004. We confirm, on this large data set, that financial analysts are on average over-optimistic and show a pronounced herding behavior. These…
Video streams tremendously occupied the highest portion of online traffic. Multiple versions of a video are created to fit the user's device specifications. In cloud storage, Keeping all versions of frequently accessed video streams in the…
We design online algorithms for the fair allocation of public goods to a set of $N$ agents over a sequence of $T$ rounds and focus on improving their performance using predictions. In the basic model, a public good arrives in each round,…
Evaluating the accuracies of models for match outcome predictions is nice and well but in the end the real proof is in the money to be made by betting. To evaluate the question whether the models developed by us could be used easily to make…
A central problem in business concerns the optimal allocation of limited resources to a set of available tasks, where the payoff of these tasks is inherently uncertain. In credit card fraud detection, for instance, a bank can only assign a…
We present a replication and correction of a recent article (Ramirez, P., Reade, J.J., Singleton, C., Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks, International Journal of Forecasting, 39:3, 2023, pp. 1413-1423,…
Conversational modeling is an important task in natural language understanding and machine intelligence. Although previous approaches exist, they are often restricted to specific domains (e.g., booking an airline ticket) and require…
Online gambling sites offer many different gambling games. In this work we analyse the gambling logs of numerous solely probability-based gambling games and extract the wager and odds distributions. We find that the log-normal distribution…
Algorithmic predictions are increasingly informing societal resource allocations by identifying individuals for targeting. Policymakers often build these systems with the assumption that by gathering more observations on individuals, they…
Path prediction is a fundamental task for estimating how pedestrians or vehicles are going to move in a scene. Because path prediction as a task of computer vision uses video as input, various information used for prediction, such as the…
This paper defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty of observations of macroeconomic variables that depend on statistical moments and correlations of random values and volumes of market trades. Any econometric assessments of…
Social media users often make explicit predictions about upcoming events. Such statements vary in the degree of certainty the author expresses toward the outcome:"Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor" vs. "Leonardo DiCaprio may win" or "No…
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries…
We consider the fundamental problem of designing a truthful single-item auction with the challenging objective of extracting a large fraction of the highest agent valuation as revenue. Following a recent trend in algorithm design, we assume…