相关论文: Projecting UK Mortality using Bayesian Generalised…

This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…

Many existing mortality models follow the framework of classical factor models, such as the Lee-Carter model and its variants. Latent common factors in factor models are defined as time-related mortality indices (such as $\kappa_t$ in the…

Within-individual variability of health indicators measured over time is becoming commonly used to inform about disease progression. Simple summary statistics (e.g. the standard deviation for each individual) are often used but they are not…

Verbal autopsies (VAs) are extensively used to investigate the population-level distributions of deaths by cause in low-resource settings without well-organized vital statistics systems. Computer-based methods are often adopted to assign…

In this work we present a spatial approach to model and investigate mortality data referenced over a Lexis structure. We decompose the force of mortality into two interpretable components: a Markov random field, smooth with respect to time,…

The missing data problem pervasively exists in statistical applications. Even as simple as the count data in mortality projections, it may not be available for certain age-and-year groups due to the budget limitations or difficulties in…

In this paper authors present a general methodology for age dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing systems, structures and components.The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference, its ability to incorporate…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

We address the problem of estimating how different parts of the brain develop and change throughout the lifespan, and how these trajectories are affected by genetic and environmental factors. Estimation of these lifespan trajectories is…

Longitudinal biomarker data and health outcomes are routinely collected in many studies to assess how biomarker trajectories predict health outcomes. Existing methods primarily focus on mean biomarker profiles, treating variability as a…

The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is defined as the number of maternal deaths in a population per 100,000 live births. Country-specific MMR estimates are published on a regular basis by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation…

The BayesMortalityPlus package provides a framework for modelling and predicting mortality data. The package includes tools for the construction of life tables based on Heligman-Pollard laws, and also on dynamic linear smoothers.…

Joint models (JM) for longitudinal and survival data have gained increasing interest and found applications in a wide range of clinical and biomedical settings. These models facilitate the understanding of the relationship between outcomes…

We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international…

Bayesian inference for survival regression modeling offers numerous advantages, especially for decision-making and external data borrowing, but demands the specification of the baseline hazard function, which may be a challenging task. We…

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

The face is a rich source of information that can be utilized to infer a person's biological age, sex, phenotype, genetic defects, and health status. All of these factors are relevant for predicting an individual's remaining lifespan. In…

This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…

We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…

The UK Biobank is a large-scale health resource comprising genetic, environmental and medical information on approximately 500,000 volunteer participants in the UK, recruited at ages 40--69 during the years 2006--2010. The project monitors…