相关论文: Extremes of vector-valued Gaussian processes with …

We consider the change-point problem for the marginal distribution of subordinated Gaussian processes that exhibit long-range dependence. The asymptotic distributions of Kolmogorov-Smirnov- and Cram\'{e}r-von Mises type statistics are…

We consider discrete time dynamical systems and show the link between Hitting Time Statistics (the distribution of the first time points land in asymptotically small sets) and Extreme Value Theory (distribution properties of the partial…

We consider covariance parameter estimation for Gaussian processes with functional inputs. From an increasing-domain asymptotics perspective, we prove the asymptotic consistency and normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We extend…

For two nonstandard renewal risk models, we investigate the precise large deviations of the finite-time ruin probability and a random sum of the net-loss process, and the asymptotics of the random-time ruin probability. Notably, in one of…

We present a detailed study on the mean first-passage time of volatility processes. We analyze the theoretical expressions based on the most common stochastic volatility models along with empirical results extracted from daily data of major…

We study asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators of drift parameters for a jump-type Heston model based on continuous time observations, where the jump process can be any purely non-Gaussian L\'evy process of not necessarily…

In the common time series model $X_{i,n} = \mu (i/n) + \varepsilon_{i,n}$ with non-stationary errors we consider the problem of detecting a significant deviation of the mean function $\mu$ from a benchmark $g (\mu )$ (such as the initial…

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

We show how one can actually take advantage of the strongly non-Gaussian nature of the fluctuations of financial assets to simplify the calculation of the Value-at-Risk of complex non linear portfolios. The resulting equations are not hard…

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

Consider a branching Markov process, $X = (X(t), t \ge 0)$, with non-local branching mechanism. Studying the asymptotic behaviour of the moments of X has recently received attention in the literature [6, 7] due to the importance of these…

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the point process of exceedances in a spatio-temporal setting whose points are given by the rescaled occurrence times, the sites and the rescaled values of exceedances. Here, the…

Estimating the probability of failure for expensive simulations is a central task in reliability analysis for structural design, power grid design, and safety certification, among other areas. This work derives credible intervals on the…

We study the a.s. sample path regularity of Gaussian processes. To this end we relate the path regularity directly to the theory of small deviations. In particular, we show that if the process is $n$-times differentiable then the…

Suppose $(X_t)_{t \in T}$ is a Gaussian process indexed by some arbitrary set $T:$ the random variable $\sup_{t \in T}{X_t}$ can be very intricate and bounding its expectation is a natural step towards understanding it. Sudakov-Fernique…

We consider the Pickands process {equation*} P_{n}(s)=\log (1/s)^{-1}\log \frac{X_{n-k+1,n}-X_{n-[k/s]+1,n}}{% X_{n-[k/s]+1,n}-X_{n-[k/s^{2}]+1,n}}, {equation*} {equation*} (\frac{k}{n}\leq s^2 \leq 1), {equation*} which is a generalization…

In this note, we study the ultimate ruin probabilities of a real-valued L{\'e}vy process X with light-tailed negative jumps. It is well-known that, for such L{\'e}vy processes, the probability of ruin decreases as an exponential function…

For a centered self-similar Gaussian process $\{Y(t):t\in[0,\infty)\}$ and $R\ge0$ we analyze asymptotic behaviour of \[ \mathcal{H}_Y^R(T) \; = \; \mathbf{E} \exp \left( \sup_{t \in [0,T]} \sqrt{2} Y(t) - (1+R) \sigma_Y^2(t) \right), \] as…

Let \{X_1, X_2, ...\} be a sequence of independent and identically distributed positive random variables of Pareto-type with index \alpha>0 and let \{N(t); t\geq 0\} be a counting process independent of the X_i's. For any fixed t\geq 0,…

Several classical results on boundary crossing probabilities of Brownian motion and random walks are extended to asymptotically Gaussian random fields, which include sums of i.i.d. random variables with multidimensional indices,…