相关论文: Bayesian prior elicitation and selection for extre…

In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…

Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…

Ecess-over-Threshold method is a crucial technique in extreme value analysis, which approximately models larger observations over a threshold using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for…

Generating accurate extremes from an observational data set is crucial when seeking to estimate risks associated with the occurrence of future extremes which could be larger than those already observed. Applications range from the…

There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…

Extreme value theory offers a statistical framework for quantifying the risk of rare events, with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution providing the canonical limit model for univariate threshold exceedances. In many applications,…

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

In the context of the expected-posterior prior (EPP) approach to Bayesian variable selection in linear models, we combine ideas from power-prior and unit-information-prior methodologies to simultaneously produce a minimally-informative…

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for…

In survival analysis, the estimation of the proportion of subjects who will never experience the event of interest, termed the cure rate, has received considerable attention recently. Its estimation can be a particularly difficult task when…

The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…

We use Bayesian model selection paradigms, such as group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator priors, to facilitate generalized additive model selection. Our approach allows for the effects of continuous predictors to be…

The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is commonly employed to help estimate the likelihood of extreme events in many geophysical and other application areas. The recently proposed blended generalized extreme value (bGEV)…

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

Modelling block maxima using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a classical and widely used method for studying univariate extremes. It allows for theoretically motivated estimation of return levels, including extrapolation…

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

We present a generic and powerful approach to study the statistics of extreme phenomena (meteorology, finance, biology...) that we apply to the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes. The chief innovation…