相关论文: Bayesian prior elicitation and selection for extre…

In this paper, we discuss the application of extreme value theory in the context of stationary $\beta$-mixing sequences that belong to the Fr\'echet domain of attraction. In particular, we propose a methodology to construct bias-corrected…

We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…

Generalized extreme value (GEV) regression is often more adapted when we investigate a relationship between a binary response variable $Y$ which represents a rare event and potentiel predictors $\mathbf{X}$. In particular, we use the…

Since the extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behaviour of the distribution function, the estimation of EVI is a very important topic in extreme value theory. Recent developments in the estimation of EVI along with covariates have…

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, like all Bayesian methods, depends on prior assumptions. These assumptions are often chosen to promote specific features in the recovered estimate. The form of the chosen prior determines the shape of…

In extreme value analysis, tail behavior of a heavy-tailed data distribution is modeled by a Pareto-type distribution in which the so-called extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behavior. For heavy-tailed data obtained from multiple…

Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…

In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Extreme value theory (EVT) is well suited to model extreme events, such as floods, heatwaves, or mechanical failures, which is required for reliability assessment of systems across multiple domains for risk management and loss prevention.…

A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…

Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…

We quantify changes DeltaQ in 100-year return values for regional annual maxima and minima of near-surface atmospheric temperature from output of five CMIP6 models, for five of the Earth's desert regions, over the interval (2025,2125). We…

We consider Bayesian inverse problems wherein the unknown state is assumed to be a function with discontinuous structure a priori. A class of prior distributions based on the output of neural networks with heavy-tailed weights is…

The tail of a bivariate distribution function in the domain of attraction of a bivariate extreme-value distribution may be approximated by the one of its extreme-value attractor. The extreme-value attractor has margins that belong to a…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we…