相关论文: Bayesian prior elicitation and selection for extre…

In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…

Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…

We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…

The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…

Marginal likelihood, also known as model evidence, is a fundamental quantity in Bayesian statistics. It is used for model selection using Bayes factors or for empirical Bayes tuning of prior hyper-parameters. Yet, the calculation of…

Bayesian model selection poses two main challenges: the specification of parameter priors for all models, and the computation of the resulting Bayes factors between models. There is now a large literature on automatic and objective…

The main challenge in Bayesian models is to determine the posterior for the model parameters. Already, in models with only one or few parameters, the analytical posterior can only be determined in special settings. In Bayesian neural…

Empirical Bayes (EB) is a popular framework for large-scale inference that aims to find data-driven estimators to compete with the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior. Two principled approaches to EB estimation have emerged over the…

We consider a sequential decision making task, where the goal is to optimize an unknown function without evaluating parameters that violate an a~priori unknown (safety) constraint. A common approach is to place a Gaussian process prior on…

We develop a method for probabilistic prediction of extreme value hot-spots in a spatio-temporal framework, tailored to big datasets containing important gaps. In this setting, direct calculation of summaries from data, such as the minimum…

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

The Bayesian approach has proved to be a coherent approach to handle ill posed Inverse problems. However, the Bayesian calculations need either an optimization or an integral calculation. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation requires…

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

We propose a model to flexibly estimate joint tail properties by exploiting the convergence of an appropriately scaled point cloud onto a compact limit set. Characteristics of the shape of the limit set correspond to key tail dependence…

The rate of uniform convergence in extreme value statistics is non-universal and can be arbitrarily slow. Further, the relative error can be unbounded in the tail of the approximation, leading to difficulty in extrapolating the extreme…

Although variable selection is one of the most popular areas of modern statistical research, much of its development has taken place in the classical paradigm compared to the Bayesian counterpart. Somewhat surprisingly, both the paradigms…

We study data-driven decision-making problems in the Bayesian framework, where the expectation in the Bayes risk is replaced by a risk-sensitive entropic risk measure. We focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is…

We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three parameters (location, scale and shape). As a result, the…

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly used approaches in finance for measuring the downside risk of investment portfolios, especially during financial crises. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on EVT called…