相关论文: Bayesian prior elicitation and selection for extre…

Classical information-theoretic generalization bounds typically control the generalization gap through KL-based mutual information and therefore rely on boundedness or sub-Gaussian tails via the moment generating function (MGF). In many…

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, posing serious threats to human life, biodiversity, and ecosystems. A key objective of extreme event attribution (EEA) is to assess whether and to what extent anthropogenic…

Extreme value theory for chaotic dynamical systems is a rapidly expanding area of research. Given a system and a real function (observable) defined on its phase space, extreme value theory studies the limit probabilistic laws obeyed by…

The advances in variational inference are providing promising paths in Bayesian estimation problems. These advances make variational phylogenetic inference an alternative approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the…

Preferential attachment is an appealing edge generating mechanism for modeling social networks. It provides both an intuitive description of network growth and an explanation for the observed power laws in degree distributions. However,…

We introduce the concept of conjugate prior models for a given likelihood function in Bayesian spatial inversion. The conjugate class of prior models can be selection extended and still remain conjugate. We demonstrate the generality of…

In this paper, we discuss a method to define prior distributions for the threshold of a generalised Pareto distribution, in particular when its applications are directed to heavy-tailed data. We propose to assign prior probabilities to the…

In many large-scale inverse problems, such as computed tomography and image deblurring, characterization of sharp edges in the solution is desired. Within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, edge-preservation is often achieved using…

We propose a transformation capable of altering the tail properties of a distribution, motivated by extreme value theory, which can be used as a layer in a normalizing flow to approximate multivariate heavy tailed distributions. We apply…

Modern methods for Bayesian regression beyond the Gaussian response setting are often computationally impractical or inaccurate in high dimensions. In fact, as discussed in recent literature, bypassing such a trade-off is still an open…

This paper develops a Bayesian Generalised Pareto Regression (GPR) model to forecast extreme losses in Indian equity markets, with a focus on the Nifty 50 index. Extreme negative returns, though rare, can cause significant financial…

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…

We consider deep neural networks in a Bayesian framework with a prior distribution sampling the network weights at random. Following a recent idea of Agapiou and Castillo (2023), who show that heavy-tailed prior distributions achieve…

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

When passing from the univariate to the multivariate setting, modelling extremes becomes much more intricate. In this introductory exposition, classical multivariate extreme value theory is presented from the point of view of multivariate…

Concentration inequalities form an essential toolkit in the study of high dimensional (HD) statistical methods. Most of the relevant statistics literature in this regard is based on sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential tail assumptions. In this…

The main object of this paper is to present some general concepts of Bayesian inference and more specifically the estimation of the hyperparameters in inverse problems. We consider a general linear situation where we are given some data…

This paper introduces a novel sub-sampling block maxima technique to model and characterize environmental extreme risks. We examine the relationships between block size and block maxima statistics derived from the Gaussian and generalized…

The Solvency II Directive and Solvency Assessment and Management (the South African equivalent) give a Solvency Capital Requirement which is based on a 99.5% Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation. This calculation involves aggregating individual…

A recent development in extreme value modeling uses the geometry of the dataset to perform inference on the multivariate tail. A key quantity in this inference is the gauge function, whose values define this geometry. Methodology proposed…