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Confidence interval performance is typically assessed in terms of two criteria: coverage probability and interval width (or margin of error). In this paper, we assess the performance of four common proportion interval estimators: the Wald,…

We consider the classical optimal dividends problem under the Cram\'er-Lundberg model with exponential claim sizes subject to a constraint on the time of ruin. We introduce the dual problem and show that the complementary slackness…

We consider the a posteriori error estimation for convection-diffusion-reaction equations in both diffusion-dominated and convection/reaction-dominated regimes. We present an explicit hybrid estimator, which, in each regime, is proved to be…

This paper treats of a kind of a gambler's ruin problem, which seeks the probability that a random walker first hits the origin at a certain time. In addition to a usual random walk which hops either rightwards or leftwards, the present…

Residuals are a key component of diagnosing model fit. The usual practice is to compute standardized residuals using expected values and standard deviations of the observed data, then use these values to detect outliers and assess model…

We consider a classical risk process with arrival of claims following a non-stationary Hawkes process. We study the asymptotic regime when the premium rate and the baseline intensity of the claims arrival process are large, and claim size…

Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…

We consider evolutionary reaction-diffusion problem with mixed Dirichlet--Robin boundary conditions. For this class of problems, we derive two-sided estimates of the distance between any function in the admissible energy space and exact…

The main theme of this paper is error analysis for approximations derived from two variants of dimensional decomposition of a multivariate function: the referential dimensional decomposition (RDD) and analysis-of-variance dimensional…

The classical Cram\'er-Lundberg risk process models the ruin probability of an insurance company experiencing an incoming cash flow - the premium income, and an outgoing cash flow - the claims. From a system's viewpoint, the web of…

We study risk processes with level dependent premium rate. Assuming that the premium rate converges, as the risk reserve increases, to the critical value in the net-profit condition, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the ruin…

We derive efficient and reliable goal-oriented error estimations, and devise adaptive mesh procedures for the finite element method that are based on the localization of a posteriori estimates. In our previous work [SIAM J. Sci. Comput.,…

Coherent lower previsions are general probabilistic models allowing incompletely specified probability distributions. However, for complete description of a coherent lower prevision -- even on finite underlying sample spaces -- an infinite…

In this paper,we consider a macro approximation of the flow of a risk reserve, The process is observed at discrete time points. Because we cannot directly observe each jump time and size then we will make use of a technique for identifying…

This article addresses the probabilistic nature of fatigue life in structures subjected to cyclic loading with variable amplitude. Drawing on the formalisation of Miner's cumulative damage rule that we introduced in the recent article…

Utility-Based Shortfall Risk (UBSR) is a risk metric that is increasingly popular in financial applications, owing to certain desirable properties that it enjoys. We consider the problem of estimating UBSR in a recursive setting, where…

Traditional statistics forbids use of test data (a.k.a. holdout data) during training. Dwork et al. 2015 pointed out that current practices in machine learning, whereby researchers build upon each other's models, copying hyperparameters and…

We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…

Harrel's concordance index is a commonly used discrimination metric for survival models, particularly for models where the relative ordering of the risk of individuals is time-independent, such as the proportional hazards model. There are…

Let $S_n$ be partial sums of an i.i.d. sequence $\{X_i\}$. We assume that $\mathbb{E} X_1 <0$ and $\mathbb{P}[X_1>0]>0$. In this paper we study the first passage time $$ \tau_u = \inf\{n:\; S_n > u\}. $$ The classical Cram\'er's estimate of…