相关论文: Mathematical modelling of zika virus in Brazil

Multiple instances of Zika virus epidemic have been reported around the world in the last two decades, turning the related illness into an international concern. In this context the use of mathematical models for epidemics is of great…

We propose a new mathematical model for the spread of Zika virus. Special attention is paid to the transmission of microcephaly. Numerical simulations show the accuracy of the model with respect to the Zika outbreak occurred in Brazil.

Background: A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an epidemic…

Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…

Recently the A/H1N1-2009 virus pandemic appeared in Mexico and in other nations. We present a study of this pandemic in the Mexican case using the SIR model to describe epidemics. This model is one of the simplest models but it has been a…

In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…

Mathematical models of epidemiological systems enable investigation of and predictions about potential disease outbreaks. However, commonly used models are often highly simplified representations of incredibly complex systems. Because of…

In this work, we adapt the epidemiological SIR model to study the evolution of the dissemination of COVID-19 in Germany and Brazil (nationally, in the State of Paraiba, and in the City of Campina Grande). We prove the well posedness and the…

The emergence of diseases such as Zika and Ebola has highlighted the need to understand the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper we develop a number of…

Zika virus (ZIKV), a disease spread primarily through the Aedes aegypti mosquito, was identified in Brazil in 2015 and was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO). Epidemiologists often use common…

In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

We shall apply a generalized SEIR model to study the outbreak of COVID-19 in Brazil. In particular, we would like to explain the projections of the increase in the level of infection over a long period of time, overlapping large local…

We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This early period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of the…

This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and numerical simulations related to the coronavirus dynamics. A description is developed based on the framework of susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model. Initially, a model…

Supervised machine learning models and public surveillance data has been employed for infectious disease forecasting in many settings. These models leverage various data sources capturing drivers of disease spread, such as climate…

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and…

Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…

In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…

Social networks are an important infrastructure for information, viruses and innovations propagation. Since users behavior has influenced by other users activity, some groups of people would be made regard to similarity of users interests.…

In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and…