相关论文: Bayesian Realized-GARCH Models for Financial Tail …

This paper introduces a robust and computationally efficient estimation framework for high-dimensional volatility models in the BEKK-ARCH class. The proposed approach employs data truncation to ensure robustness against heavy-tailed…

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

We study the optimal trade-off between expectation and tail risk for regret distribution in the stochastic multi-armed bandit model. We fully characterize the interplay among three desired properties for policy design: worst-case…

The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian model comparison, based on the posterior probabilities and posterior odds ratios, in testing the explanatory power of the set of competing GARCH (ang. Generalised Autoregressive…

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…

Imitation learning algorithms learn viable policies by imitating an expert's behavior when reward signals are not available. Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) is a state-of-the-art algorithm for learning policies when the…

This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…

Let $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb Z}$ be a GARCH process with $E(X_0^4)<\infty$, and let $\mu_n$ denote the distribution of $\frac 1{{\sqrt n}}\sum_{i=1}^n [X_i^2-\mathbb E(X_0^2)]$. We derive a numerical approximation of $\mu_n$ when $x_1,...,x_n$…

Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…

This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…

We apply a quadratic hedging scheme developed by Foellmer, Schweizer, and Sondermann to European contingent products whose underlying asset is modeled using a GARCH process and show that local risk-minimizing strategies with respect to the…

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

In recent years, under deregulated environment, electric utility companies have been encouraged to ensure maximum system reliability through the employment of cost-effective long-term asset management strategies. To help achieve this goal,…

Economically responsible mitigation of multivariate extreme risks-such as extreme rainfall over large areas, large simultaneous variations in many stock prices, or widespread breakdowns in transportation systems-requires assessing the…

In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…

We consider calculation of capital requirements when the underlying economic scenarios are determined by simulatable risk factors. In the respective nested simulation framework, the goal is to estimate portfolio tail risk, quantified via…

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…

This paper presents a new methodology for generating continuous statistical distributions, integrating the exponentiated odds ratio within the framework of survival analysis. This new method enhances the flexibility and adaptability of…