相关论文: Bayesian Realized-GARCH Models for Financial Tail …

Conditional extreme value theory (EVT) methods promise enhanced forecasting of the extreme tail events that often dominate systemic risk. We present an improved two-tailed peaks-over-threshold (2T-POT) Hawkes model that is adapted for…

We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…

Many management decisions involve accumulated random realizations for which only the first and second moments of their distribution are available. The sharp Chebyshev-type bound for the tail probability and Scarf bound for the expected loss…

This paper develops a unified framework that integrates behavioral distortions into rational portfolio optimization by extracting implied probability weighting functions (PWFs) from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

We develop a procedure for forecasting the volatility of a time series immediately following a news shock. Adapting the similarity-based framework of Lin and Eck (2020), we exploit series that have experienced similar shocks. We aggregate…

Modeling returns on large portfolios is a challenging problem as the number of parameters in the covariance matrix grows as the square of the size of the portfolio. Traditional correlation models, for example, the dynamic conditional…

This paper develops a large-scale inference approach for the regularization of stock return covariance matrices. The framework allows for the presence of heavy tails and multivariate GARCH-type effects of unknown form among the stock…

This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…

Bayesian penalized regression techniques, such as the Bayesian lasso and the Bayesian horseshoe estimator, have recently received a significant amount of attention in the statistics literature. However, software implementing…

We study distributions of realized variance (squared realized volatility) and squared implied volatility, as represented by VIX and VXO indices. We find that Generalized Beta distribution provide the best fits. These fits are much more…

A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and…

Here, we have analysed a GARCH(1,1) model with the aim to fit higher order moments for different companies' stock prices. When we assume a gaussian conditional distribution, we fail to capture any empirical data when fitting the first three…

Matrix-variate time series data are largely available in applications. However, no attempt has been made to study their conditional heteroskedasticity that is often observed in economic and financial data. To address this gap, we propose a…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

We propose Neural GARCH, a class of methods to model conditional heteroskedasticity in financial time series. Neural GARCH is a neural network adaptation of the GARCH 1,1 model in the univariate case, and the diagonal BEKK 1,1 model in the…

In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…

We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and…

In this paper, we consider the problem of the estimation of a Weibull tail-coefficient. In particular, we propose a regression model, from which we derive a bias-reduced estimator. This estimator is based on a least-squares approach. The…

This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…