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Remarks on stationary GARCH processes under heavy tail distributions

Statistics Theory 2026-02-27 v1 Probability Statistics Theory

Abstract

Let (Xn)nZ(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb Z} be a GARCH process with E(X04)<E(X_0^4)<\infty, and let μn\mu_n denote the distribution of 1ni=1n[Xi2E(X02)]\frac 1{{\sqrt n}}\sum_{i=1}^n [X_i^2-\mathbb E(X_0^2)]. We derive a numerical approximation of μn\mu_n when x1,...,xnx_1,...,x_n are observed. This yields the derivation of confidence intervals for μ=E(X02)\mu= E(X_0^2) and we investigate the accuracy of these confidence intervals in comparison with standard ones based on normal approximation. Moreover, when the innovation process has heavy tail distribution, we improve the method using a new resampling method.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.22929,
  title  = {Remarks on stationary GARCH processes under heavy tail distributions},
  author = {Marc Taberner-Ortiz and Manfred Denker},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.22929},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:53:48.385Z