相关论文: A recipe for irreproducible results

Over the recent years the importance of numerical experiments has gradually been more recognized. Nonetheless, sufficient documentation of how computational results have been obtained is often not available. Especially in the scientific…

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Large-scale replication studies like the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P) provide invaluable systematic data on scientific replicability, but most analyses and interpretations of the data fail to agree on the definition of…

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential)…

Systematic differences in experimental materials, methods, measurements, and data handling between labs, over time, and among personnel can sabotage experimental reproducibility. Uncovering such differences can be difficult and time…

There has been increasing concern within the machine learning community that we are in a reproducibility crisis. As many have begun to work on this problem, all work we are aware of treat the issue of reproducibility as an intrinsic binary…

Reliability is an essential measure of how closely observed scores represent latent scores (reflecting constructs), assuming some latent variable measurement model. We present a general theoretical framework of reliability, placing emphasis…

The expressions for entropy production, free energy, and entropy extraction rates are derived for a Brownian particle that walks in an underdamped medium. Our analysis indicates that as long as the system is driven out of equilibrium, it…

With the aid of simple analytical computations for the Ehrenfest model, we clarify some basic features of macroscopic irreversibility. The stochastic character of the model allows us to give a non-ambiguous interpretation of the general…

Prediction of events is the challenge in many different disciplines, from meteorology to finance; the more this task is difficult, the more a system is {\it complex}. Nevertheless, even according to this restricted definition, a general…

We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…

Contributing to the toolbox for interpreting election results, we evaluate the robustness of election winners to random noise. We compare the robustness of different voting rules and evaluate the robustness of real-world election winners…

It is shown that in systems with time-dependent and/or spatially nonuniform temperature $T(t,x)$, (i) most of the transport processes is weakly non-ergodic, and (ii) the diffusion (Brownian motion, BM) is anomalous. A few examples of simple…

Human agents happen to judge that a conjunction of two terms is more probable than one of the terms, in contradiction with the rules of classical probabilities---this is the conjunction fallacy. One of the most discussed accounts of this…

Extensive numerical evidence shows that the assimilation of observations has a stabilizing effect on unstable dynamics, in numerical weather prediction and elsewhere. In this paper, we apply mathematically rigorous methods to showing why…

We revisit processes generated by iterated random functions driven by a stationary and ergodic sequence. Such a process is called strongly stable if a random initialization exists, for which the process is stationary and ergodic, and for…

Emergence is a pregnant property in various fields. It is the fact for a phenomenon to appear surprisingly and to be such that it seems at first sight that it is not possible to predict its apparition. That is the reason why it has often…

From a dynamical viewpoint, basic phase transitions of statistical mechanics can be regarded as a breaking of ergodicity. While many random models exhibiting such transitions at the thermodynamics limit exist, finite-dimensional examples…

A common concern in experimental research is the auditability and reproducibility of experiments. Experiments are usually designed, provisioned, managed, and analyzed by diverse teams of specialists (e.g., researchers, technicians and…

Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties…