相关论文: A recipe for irreproducible results

We follow the time sequence of binary elastic collisions in a small collection of hard-core particles. Intervals between the collisions are characterized by the numbers of collisions of different pairs in a given time. It was shown…

Replicability is essential in science as it allows us to validate and verify research findings. Impagliazzo, Lei, Pitassi and Sorrell (`22) recently initiated the study of replicability in machine learning. A learning algorithm is…

Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The assumption of independence is often made in…

We propose a classical, i.e., local-real physical model of processes underlying EPR experiments. The model leads to the prediction, that the visibility of the output signal will exhibit increasing variation as the coincidence window is…

Trusting machine learning algorithms requires having confidence in their outputs. Confidence is typically interpreted in terms of model reliability, where a model is reliable if it produces a high proportion of correct outputs. However,…

As animals interact with their environments, they must infer properties of their surroundings. Some animals, including humans, can represent uncertainty about those properties. But when, if ever, do they use probability distributions to…

We study the phenomenon of weak ergodicity breaking for a class of globally correlated random walk dynamics defined over a finite set of states. The persistence in a given state or the transition to another one depends on the whole previous…

A common assumption in belief revision is that the reliability of the information sources is either given, derived from temporal information, or the same for all. This article does not describe a new semantics for integration but the…

Practicing mathematicians often assume that mathematical claims, when they are true, have good reasons to be true. Such a state of affairs is "unreasonable", in Wigner's sense, because basic results in computational complexity suggest that…

In the presence of model risk, it is well-established to replace classical expected values by worst-case expectations over all models within a fixed radius from a given reference model. This is the "robustness" approach. We show that…

In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We…

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential…

How can we assess the reliability of a dataset without access to ground truth? We introduce the problem of reliability scoring for datasets collected from potentially strategic sources. The true data are unobserved, but we see outcomes of…

When describing the effective dynamics of an observable in a many-body system, the repeated randomness assumption, which states that the system returns in a short time to a maximum entropy state, is a crucial hypothesis to guarantee that…

The increasing ease of data capture and storage has led to a corresponding increase in the choice of data, the type of analysis performed on that data, and the complexity of the analysis performed. The main contribution of this paper is to…

Nonergodicity observed in single-particle tracking experiments is usually modeled by transient trapping rather than spatial disorder. We introduce models of a particle diffusing in a medium consisting of regions with random sizes and random…

Score reliability is necessary for establishing a validity argument for an instrument, and is therefore highly important to investigate. Depending on the proposed instrument use and score interpretations, differing degrees of precision in…

Development of several alternative mathematical models for the biological system in question and discrimination between such models using experimental data is the best way to robust conclusions. Models which challenge existing theories are…

Applications from finance to epidemiology and cyber-security require accurate forecasts of dynamic phenomena, which are often only partially observed. We demonstrate that a system's predictability degrades as a function of temporal…

Several philosophical issues in connection with computer simulations rely on the assumption that results of simulations are trustworthy. Examples of these include the debate on the experimental role of computer simulations \cite{Parker2009,…