相关论文: The damage inflicted by a computer virus: A new es…
The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…
Identifying new viral threats, and developing long term defences against current and future computer viruses, requires an understanding of their behaviour, structure and capabilities. This paper aims to advance this understanding by further…
This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that captures the spread of competing epidemics over a population network. First, we provide sufficient conditions for the infection level of…
In our more and more interconnected world, a specific risk is that of a cyber-epidemic (or cyber-pandemic), produced either accidentally or intentionally, where a cyber virus propagates from device to device up to undermining the global…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
Regulation, legal liabilities, and societal concerns challenge the adoption of AI in safety and security-critical applications. One of the key concerns is that adversaries can cause harm by manipulating model predictions without being…
It is very challenging to predict the cost of a cyber incident owing to the complex nature of cyber risk. However, it is inevitable for insurance companies who offer cyber insurance policies. The time to identifying an incident and the time…
Computer malware and biological pathogens often use similar mechanisms of infections. For this reason, it has been suggested to model malware spread using epidemiological models developed to characterize the spread of biological pathogens.…
In this paper we introduce a discrete time competing virus model and the assumptions necessary for the model to be well posed. We analyze the system exploring its different equilibria. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the…
According to a study of The Standish Group International, 44% of software projects cost more and last longer than expected. More accurate the effort estimation is; the better the enterprise gets organized and the more the software project…
Malware attacks in today's vast digital ecosystem pose a serious threat. Understanding malware propagation dynamics and designing effective control strategies are therefore essential. In this work, we propose a generic SEIRV model…
Digitization increases business opportunities and the risk of companies being victims of devastating cyberattacks. Therefore, managing risk exposure and cybersecurity strategies is essential for digitized companies that want to survive in…
This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that captures the spread of competing SIR epidemics over a population network. First, we provide a sufficient condition for the infection level…
AI companies and governments are increasingly concerned about frontier AI systems enabling cybercrime, yet defining meaningful capability thresholds requires knowing the scale of cybercrime today. Current estimates of global cybercrime…
During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands arising from public health and economic cost. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimise the economic…
We introduce a new method to efficiently approximate the number of infections resulting from a given initially-infected node in a network of susceptible individuals. Our approach is based on counting the number of possible infection walks…
This work evaluates the impact of contagious cyber-events, over a finite horizon, on firms' financial health and on a cyber insurance portfolio. Our approach builds on key empirical findings from economics and cybersecurity. In economics,…
Many models of virus propagation in Computer Networks inspired by {\bf SIS,SIR,}\\ {\bf SEIR}, etc. epidemic disease propagation mathematical models that can be found in the epidemiology field have been proposed in the last two decades. The…
This paper presents a general overview on evolution of concealment methods in computer viruses and defensive techniques employed by anti-virus products. In order to stay far from the anti-virus scanners, computer viruses gradually improve…
We study the problem of identifying a single infection source in a network under the susceptible-infected-recovered-infected (SIRI) model. We describe the infection model via a state-space model, and utilizing a state propagation approach,…