相关论文: A Dutch Book against Sleeping Beauties Who Are Evi…
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a problem of imperfect recall that has received considerable attention. One approach to solving the Sleeping Beauty problem is to allow Sleeping Beauty to make decisions based on her beliefs, and then…
Significant controversy remains about what constitute correct self-locating beliefs in scenarios such as the Sleeping Beauty problem, with proponents on both the "halfer" and "thirder" sides. To attempt to settle the issue, one natural…
The Sleeping Beauty Problem (SBP) is a long-standing puzzle in classical probability theory and has been used to challenge the Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics, since both involve objective determinacy combined with…
How should we update de dicto beliefs in the face of de se evidence? The Sleeping Beauty problem divides philosophers into two camps, halfers and thirders. But there is some disagreement among halfers about how their position should…
The way a rational agent changes her belief in certain propositions/hypotheses in the light of new evidence lies at the heart of Bayesian inference. The basic natural assumption, as summarized in van Fraassen's Reflection Principle…
A large number of essays address the Sleeping Beauty problem, which undermines the validity of Bayesian inference and Bas Van Fraassen's 'Reflection Principle'. In this study a straightforward analysis of the problem based on probability…
The Sleeping Beauty Problem remains a paradoxical problem that penetrates multiple disciplines that include probability theory, self-locating belief, decision theory, cognitive science, the philosophy of mathematics and science. It asks the…
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a probability riddle with no definite solution for more than two decades and its solution is of great interest in many fields of knowledge. There are two main competing solutions to the problem: the halfer…
We discuss problems for convex Bayesian decision making and uncertainty representation. These include the inability to accommodate various natural and useful constraints and the possibility of an analog of the classical Dutch Book being…
This paper sets out to resolve how agents ought to act in the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (self-locating belief) problems, not through the calculation of anthropic probabilities, but through finding the correct…
A careful analysis of conditioning in the Sleeping Beauty problem is done, using the formal model for reasoning about knowledge and probability developed by Halpern and Tuttle. While the Sleeping Beauty problem has been viewed as revealing…
We consider models for inference which involve observers which may have multiple copies, such as in the Sleeping Beauty problem. We establish a framework for describing these problems on a probability space satisfying Kolmogorov's axioms,…
We provide Dutch-book arguments against misspecified Bayesian learning. An agent progressively learns about a state and is offered a bet after every discovery. We say the agent is deterministically Dutch-booked when they would accept all…
The roles played by decision factors in making complex subject are decisions are characterized by how these factors affect the overall decision. Evidence that partially matches a factor is evaluated, and then effective computational rules…
In this expository paper we describe a relatively elementary method of establishing the existence of a Dutch book in a simple multivariate normal prediction setting. The method involves deriving a nonstandard predictive distribution that is…
The aim of this paper is to show that partial probability can be justified from the standpoint of subjective probability in much the same way as classical probability does. The seminal works of Ramsey and De Finetti have furnished a method…
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in probability theory that has gained much attention since Elga's discussion of it [Elga, Adam, Analysis 60 (2), p.143-147 (2000)]. Sleeping Beauty is put asleep, and a coin is tossed. If the outcome…
In recent years, a number of studies have introduced methods for identifying papers with delayed recognition (so called "sleeping beauties", SBs) or have presented single publications as cases of SBs. Most recently, Ke et al. (2015)…
The prescriptions of our two most prominent strands of decision theory, evidential and causal, differ in a general class of problems known as Newcomb problems. In these, evidential decision theory prescribes choosing a dominated act.…
We consider a model where an agent is must choose between alternatives that each provide only an imprecise description of the world (e.g. linguistic expressions). The set of alternatives is closed under logical conjunction and disjunction,…