相关论文: Empirical analysis and agent-based modeling of Lit…

The election control problem through social influence asks to find a set of nodes in a social network of voters to be the starters of a political campaign aiming at supporting a given target candidate. Voters reached by the campaign change…

Mass Media outlets have occupied the central role of the political scenario, and are persuasive in the process of opinion formation of the citizens. In particular, the study of the relationship between Mass Media and behaviour of citizens…

While the number and variety of models to explain opinion exchange dynamics is huge, attempts to justify the model results using empirical data are relatively rare. As linking to real data is essential for establishing model credibility,…

We introduce time variation in the flip-rates of the Voter Model. This type of generalisation is relevant to models of ageing in language change, allowing the representation of changes in speakers' learning rates over their lifetime and may…

Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of…

In this paper, we apply genetic algorithms to the field of electoral studies. Forecasting election results is one of the most exciting and demanding tasks in the area of market research, especially due to the fact that decisions have to be…

Agent-based models are versatile tools for studying how societal opinion change, including political polarization and cultural diffusion, emerges from individual behavior. This study expands agents' psychological realism using…

Here we present \texttt{electoral\_sim}, an open-source Python framework for simulating and comparing electoral systems across diverse voter preference distributions. The framework represents voters and candidates as points in a…

The integrity of elections is central to democratic systems. However, a myriad of malicious actors aspire to influence election outcomes for financial or political benefit. A common means to such ends is by manipulating perceptions of the…

In this article, we consider modeling ranked responses from a heterogeneous population. Specifically, we analyze data from the Eurobarometer 34.1 survey regarding public policy preferences towards drugs, alcohol and AIDS. Such policy…

The proportional elections held in Brazil in 1998 and 2002 display identical statistical signatures. In particular, the distribution of votes among candidates includes a power-law regimen. We suggest that the rationale behind this robust…

A model of the opinion dynamics underlying the political decision is proposed. The analysis is restricted to a bipolar scheme with a possible third political area. The interaction among voters is local but the final decision strongly…

We present a novel model for the effect of echo chambers, filter bubbles, and reinforcement on election results. Our model extends the well known voter model with zealots to include reinforcement. We analyze the behaviour of the model,…

We investigate a variation of the classical voter model in which the set of influencing agents depends on an individual's current opinion. The initial population consists of a random sample of equally sized sub-populations for each state,…

In the latent voter model, which models the spread of a technology through a social network, individuals who have just changed their choice have a latent period, which is exponential with rate $\lambda$, during which they will not buy a new…

Election data represent a precious source of information to study human behavior at a large scale. In proportional elections with open lists, the number of votes received by a candidate, rescaled by the average performance of all…

We study simple interacting particle systems on heterogeneous networks, including the voter model and the invasion process. These are both two-state models in which in an update event an individual changes state to agree with a neighbor.…

We present ParlAI Vote, an interactive web platform for exploring European Parliament debates and votes, and for testing LLMs on vote prediction and bias analysis. This web system connects debate topics, speeches, and roll-call outcomes,…

Understanding the dependence structure between response variables is an important component in the analysis of correlated multivariate data. This article focuses on modeling dependence structures in multivariate binary data, motivated by a…

Empirical analyses on the factors driving vote switching are rare, usually conducted at the national level without considering the parties of origin and destination, and often unreliable due to the severe inaccuracy of recall survey data.…