相关论文: The temporalized Massey's method

We summarise popular methods used for skill rating in competitive sports, along with their inferential paradigms and introduce new approaches based on sequential Monte Carlo and discrete hidden Markov models. We advocate for a state-space…

New continuous and stochastic extensions of the minority game, devised as a fundamental model for a market of competitive agents, are introduced and studied in the context of statistical physics. The new formulation reproduces the key…

Comparative Judgement is an assessment method where item ratings are estimated based on rankings of subsets of the items. These rankings are typically pairwise, with ratings taken to be the estimated parameters from fitting a Bradley-Terry…

Under certain circumstances such as lack of information or bounded rationality, human players can take decisions on which strategy to choose in a game on the basis of simple opinions. These opinions can be modified after each round by…

Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is…

We present a general theoretical model for the spatio-temporal dynamics of animal contests. Inspired by interactions between physical particles, the model is formulated in terms of effective interaction potentials, which map typical…

We consider a dynamic method, based on synchronization and adaptive control, to estimate unknown parameters of a nonlinear dynamical system from a given scalar chaotic time series. We present an important extension of the method when time…

Temporal data distribution shift is prevalent in the financial text. How can a financial sentiment analysis system be trained in a volatile market environment that can accurately infer sentiment and be robust to temporal data distribution…

In this paper, we present betting strategy of a football game using probability theory. We know all betting houses offer slightly unfair odds towards the player. Here we discuss a simple way to figure out which betting house is offering…

The problem of continuous machine learning is studied. Within the framework of the game-theoretic approach, when for calculating the next forecast, no assumptions about the stochastic nature of the source that generates the data flow are…

Multiwinner voting captures a wide variety of settings, from parliamentary elections in democratic systems to product placement in online shopping platforms. There is a large body of work dealing with axiomatic characterizations,…

A popular quantitative approach to evaluating player performance in sports involves comparing an observed outcome to the expected outcome ignoring player involvement, which is estimated using statistical or machine learning methods. In…

Shapley values are great analytical tools in game theory to measure the importance of a player in a game. Due to their axiomatic and desirable properties such as efficiency, they have become popular for feature importance analysis in data…

We present a framework that gives a deep insight into the link between physical and technical-tactical aspects of soccer and it allows associating physical performance with value generation thanks to a top-down approach. First, we estimate…

In this article we revise the football's performance score called PlayeRank, designed and evaluated by Pappalardo et al.\ in 2019. First, we analyze the weights extracted from the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that solves the…

This paper develops mathematical tools to estimate seasonal changes in measles transmission rates and corresponding variation in population susceptibility. The tools are designed to leverage times series of cases in the absence of…

In recent years excessive monetization of football and professionalism among the players has been argued to have affected the quality of the match in different ways. On the one hand, playing football has become a high-income profession and…

In most sports, especially football, most coaches and analysts search for key performance indicators using notational analysis. This method utilizes a statistical summary of events based on video footage and numerical records of goal…

We propose a method for generating a temporally remapped video that matches the desired target duration while maximally preserving natural video dynamics. Our approach trains a neural network through self-supervision to recognize and…

In sports analytics, home field advantage is a robust phenomenon where the home team wins more games than the away team. However, discovering the causal factors behind home field advantage presents unique challenges due to the…