相关论文: Likelihood Ratio as Weight of Forensic Evidence: A…

The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this…

In the Bayesian paradigm for presenting forensic evidence to court, it is recommended that the weight of the evidence be summarized as a likelihood ratio (LR) between two opposing hypotheses of how the evidence could have been produced.…

When presenting forensic evidence, such as a DNA match, experts often use the Likelihood ratio (LR) to explain the impact of evidence . The LR measures the probative value of the evidence with respect to a single hypothesis such as 'DNA…

Several authors have explained that the likelihood ratio measures the strength of the evidence represented by observations in statistical problems. This idea works fine when the goal is to evaluate the strength of the available evidence for…

For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify…

Lennard (2013) [Fingerprint identification: how far have we come? Aus J Forensic Sci. doi:10.1080/00450618.2012.752037] proposes that the numeric output of statistical models should not be presented in court (except "if necessary" / "if…

Forensic examiners and attorneys need to know how to express evidence in favor or against a prosecutor's hypothesis in a way that avoids the prosecutor's fallacy and follows the modern reporting standards for forensic evidence. This article…

The likelihood ratio (LR) measures the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses. Several levels of uncertainty arise if frequentist methods are chosen for its assessment: the assumed population model only approximates the…

Forensic experts use specialized training and knowledge to enable other members of the judicial system to make better informed and more just decisions. Factfinders, in particular, are tasked with judging how much weight to give to experts'…

I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…

In mathematics information is a number that measures uncertainty (entropy) based on a probabilistic distribution, often of an obscure origin. In real life language information is a datum, a statement, more precisely, a formula. But such a…

Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two…

An agent often has a number of hypotheses, and must choose among them based on observations, or outcomes of experiments. Each of these observations can be viewed as providing evidence for or against various hypotheses. All the attempts to…

In 2016, the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) published guidelines for the evaluation, interpretation and reporting of scientific evidence. In the guidelines, ENFSI endorsed the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) as a…

An agent often has a number of hypotheses, and must choose among them based on observations, or outcomes of experiments. Each of these observations can be viewed as providing evidence for or against various hypotheses. All the attempts to…

This short text tried to establish a big picture of what evidential statistics is about and how an ideal inference method should behave. Moreover, by examining shortcomings of some of the currently used methods for measuring evidence and…

The persistent issue of wrongful convictions in the United States emphasizes the need for scrutiny and improvement of the criminal justice system. While statistical methods for the evaluation of forensic evidence, including glass,…

There has not been an established mathematical measure of evidence. Some Bayesians have argued that probability can be an objectively correct measure of ``rational degrees of belief,'' which we do not distinguish from evidence. However,…

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the…

Forensic scientists are often criticised for the lack of quantitative support for the conclusions of their examinations. While scholars advocate for the use of a Bayes factor to quantify the weight of forensic evidence, it is often…