相关论文: Generalized roll-call model for the Shapley-Shubik…
Spherical symmetry arguments are used to produce a general device to convert identities and inequalities for the $p$th absolute moments of real-valued random variables into the corresponding identities and inequalities for the $p$th moments…
A statistical estimation model with qualitative input provides a mechanism to fuse human intuition in the form of qualitative information into a statistical model. We investigate the statistical properties of this model and devise a…
Global sensitivity analysis aims at measuring the relative importance of different variables or groups of variables for the variability of a quantity of interest. Among several sensitivity indices, so-called Shapley effects have recently…
By discussing several examples, the theory of generalized functional models is shown to be very natural for modeling some situations of reasoning under uncertainty. A generalized functional model is a pair (f, P) where f is a function…
Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only…
Changes in input distribution can induce shifts in the average predictions of machine learning models. Such prediction shifts may impact downstream business outcomes (e.g. a bank's loan approval rate), so understanding their causes can be…
We show how voting may be viewed naturally from an algebraic perspective by viewing voting profiles as elements of certain well-studied $\mathbb{Q}S_n$-modules. By using only a handful of simple combinatorial objects (e.g., tabloids) and…
We investigate a problem in which each member of a group of learners is trained separately to solve the same classification task. Each learner has access to a training dataset (possibly with overlap across learners) but each trained…
Key to effective generic, or "black-box", variational inference is the selection of an approximation to the target density that balances accuracy and speed. Copula models are promising options, but calibration of the approximation can be…
Given a bivariate random pair $(X,Y)$, a natural problem is to estimate, from a single sample $(X_i,Y_i)_{1\le i\le n}$, quantities such as $\mathbb{E}\left[ \mathbb{E}[ Y\mid X ]^2 \right]$. More broadly, sensitivity indices are designed…
The voter model and the Axelrod model are two of the main stochastic processes that describe the spread of opinions on networks. The former includes social influence, the tendency of individuals to become more similar when they interact,…
In the United States electoral system, a candidate is elected indirectly by winning a majority of electoral votes cast by individual states, the election usually being decided by the votes cast by a small number of "swing states" where the…
The q-voter model is a spin-flip system in which the rate of flipping to type i is given by the qth power of the proportion of nearest neighbours in type i for $i=0,1$. If $q=1$ it reduces to the classical voter model. We show that in the…
Given a random process $x(\tau)$ which undergoes stochastic resetting at a constant rate $r$ to a position drawn from a distribution ${\cal P}(x)$, we consider a sequence of dynamical observables $A_1, \dots, A_n$ associated to the…
Factor importance measures the impact of each feature on output prediction accuracy. Many existing works focus on the model-based importance, but an important feature in one learning algorithm may hold little significance in another model.…
The authors present evidence for universality in numerical computations with random data. Given a (possibly stochastic) numerical algorithm with random input data, the time (or number of iterations) to convergence (within a given tolerance)…
A model-assisted semiparametric method of estimating finite population totals is investigated to improve the precision of survey estimators by incorporating multivariate auxiliary information. The proposed superpopulation model is a…
The widely claimed replicability crisis in science may lead to revised standards of significance. The customary frequentist confidence intervals, calibrated through hypothetical repetitions of the experiment that is supposed to have…
A voter sits on each vertex of an infinite tree of degree $k$, and has to decide between two alternative opinions. At each time step, each voter switches to the opinion of the majority of her neighbors. We analyze this majority process when…
We consider two-tier voting system and try to determine optimal weights for a fair representation in such systems. A prominent example of such a voting system is the Council of Ministers of the European Union. Under the assumption of…