相关论文: Quantification of observed prior and likelihood in…

We study information theoretic methods for ranking biomarkers. In clinical trials there are two, closely related, types of biomarkers: predictive and prognostic, and disentangling them is a key challenge. Our first step is to phrase…

This paper develops a Bayesian approach for assessing equivalence and non-inferiority hypotheses in two-arm trials using relative belief ratios. A relative belief ratio is a measure of statistical evidence and can indicate evidence either…

We demonstrate a measure for the effective number of parameters constrained by a posterior distribution in the context of cosmology. In the same way that the mean of the Shannon information (i.e. the Kullback-Leibler divergence) provides a…

Measures of dependence among variables, and measures of information content and shared information have become valuable tools of multi-variable data analysis. Information measures, like marginal entropies, mutual and multi-information, have…

We study the interrelationships between the Fisher information metric recently introduced, on the basis of maximum entropy considerations, by Brody and Hughston (quant-ph/9906085) and the monotone metrics, as explicated by Petz and Sudar.…

The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of…

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to `learn from a lot' in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, e.g. stored in public repositories. We review applications…

It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than…

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…

Statistical inference can be seen as information processing involving input information and output information that updates belief about some unknown parameters. We consider the Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical…

In causal inference, sensitivity analysis is important to assess the robustness of study conclusions to key assumptions. We perform sensitivity analysis of the assumption that missing outcomes are missing completely at random. We follow a…

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides a principled framework for selecting observations or experiments. We introduce new Bayesian design criteria based on the expected Wasserstein-$p$ distance between the prior and posterior…

In mathematics information is a number that measures uncertainty (entropy) based on a probabilistic distribution, often of an obscure origin. In real life language information is a datum, a statement, more precisely, a formula. But such a…

An informative sampling design leads to the selection of units whose inclusion probabilities are correlated with the response variable of interest. Model inference performed on the resulting observed sample will be biased for the population…

In Bayesian theory, the role of information is central. The influence exerted by prior information on posterior outcomes often jeopardizes Bayesian studies, due to the potentially subjective nature of the prior choice. In modeling where a…

In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…

What is information? Is it physical? We argue that in a Bayesian theory the notion of information must be defined in terms of its effects on the beliefs of rational agents. Information is whatever constrains rational beliefs and therefore…

We propose a measure of the impact of any two choices of prior distributions by quantifying the Wasserstein distance between the respective resulting posterior distributions at any fixed sample size. We illustrate this measure on the…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…