相关论文: Quantification of observed prior and likelihood in…

We provide an introductory review of Bayesian data analytical methods, with a focus on applications for linguistics, psychology, psycholinguistics, and cognitive science. The empirically oriented researcher will benefit from making Bayesian…

Maximum likelihood fits to data can be done using binned data (histograms) and unbinned data. With binned data, one gets not only the fitted parameters but also a measure of the goodness of fit. With unbinned data, currently, the fitted…

The problem of model selection is considered for the setting of interpolating estimators, where the number of model parameters exceeds the size of the dataset. Classical information criteria typically consider the large-data limit,…

Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…

Bayesian likelihood-free inference, which is used to perform Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, enjoys an increasing number of important scientific applications. However, many aspects of a Bayesian analysis become more…

Accurately estimating the informativeness of individual samples in a dataset is an important objective in deep learning, as it can guide sample selection, which can improve model efficiency and accuracy by removing redundant or potentially…

In recent years, a number of results have been developed which connect information measures and estimation measures under various models, including, predominently, Gaussian and Poisson models. More recent results due to Taborda and…

We develop a generally applicable full-information inference method for heterogeneous agent models, combining aggregate time series data and repeated cross sections of micro data. To handle unobserved aggregate state variables that affect…

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables.…

Estimating the Shannon entropy of a discrete distribution from which we have only observed a small sample is challenging. Estimating other information-theoretic metrics, such as the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two sparsely sampled…

A question of some interest is how to characterize the amount of information that a prior puts into a statistical analysis. Rather than a general characterization, we provide an approach to characterizing the amount of information a prior…

In this paper, distributed Bayesian detection problems with unknown prior probabilities of hypotheses are considered. The sensors obtain observations which are conditionally dependent across sensors and their probability density functions…

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

Motivation: Recent work has demonstrated the feasibility of using non-numerical, qualitative data to parameterize mathematical models. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of such parameterized models has remained challenging because of…

A Bayesian approach is developed to determine quantum mechanical potentials from empirical data. Bayesian methods, combining empirical measurements and "a priori" information, provide flexible tools for such empirical learning problems. The…

Statistical estimates from survey samples have traditionally been obtained via design-based estimators. In many cases, these estimators tend to work well for quantities such as population totals or means, but can fall short as sample sizes…

The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…

A new combinatorial-probabilistic diagnostic entropy has been introduced. It describes the pair-wise sum of probabilities of system conditions that have to be distinguished during the diagnosing process. The proposed measure describes the…