相关论文: Quantification of observed prior and likelihood in…

Observations on the past provide some hints about what will happen in the future, and this can be quantified using information theory. The ``predictive information'' defined in this way has connections to measures of complexity that have…

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

This short note revisit information metric, underlining that it is a pseudo metric on manifolds of observables (random variables), rather than as usual on probability laws. Geodesics are characterized in terms of their boundaries and…

After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…

When using complex Bayesian models to combine information, the checking for consistency of the information being combined is good statistical practice. Here a new method is developed for detecting prior-data conflicts in Bayesian models…

Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…

We propose a two-component mixture of a noninformative (diffuse) and an informative prior distribution, weighted through the data in such a way to prefer the first component if a prior-data conflict arises. The data-driven approach for…

Like mean, quantile and variance, mode is also an important measure of central tendency and data summary. Many practical questions often focus on "Which element (gene or file or signal) occurs most often or is the most typical among all…

Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…

We propose information criteria that measure the prediction risk of a predictive density based on the Bayesian marginal likelihood from a frequentist point of view. We derive criteria for selecting variables in linear regression models,…

Bounded confidence opinion dynamics model the propagation of information in social networks. However in the existing literature, opinions are only viewed as abstract quantities without semantics rather than as part of a decision-making…

Nonparametric and nonlinear measures of statistical dependence between pairs of random variables are important tools in modern data analysis. In particular the emergence of large data sets can now support the relaxation of linearity…

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and…

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

In this work we: (1) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and, (2) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar…

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

In a bivariate meta-analysis the number of diagnostic studies involved is often very low so that frequentist methods may result in problems. Bayesian inference is attractive as informative priors that add small amount of information can…

Bayesian neural networks have successfully designed and optimized a robust neural network model in many application problems, including uncertainty quantification. However, with its recent success, information-theoretic understanding about…