相关论文: Indirect identification of damage functions from d…
Risk assessment in casualty insurance, such as flood risk, traditionally relies on extreme-value methods that emphasizes rare events. These approaches are well-suited for characterizing tail risk, but do not capture the broader dynamics of…
Despite its importance for insurance, there is almost no literature on statistical hail damage modeling. Statistical models for hailstorms exist, though they are generally not open-source, but no study appears to have developed a stochastic…
From the integration of non-symmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. We show that functions characterizing…
The block maxima approach, which consists of dividing a series of observations into equal sized blocks to extract the block maxima, is commonly used for identifying and modelling extreme events using the generalized extreme value (GEV)…
In this paper, we set up the distribution function $$ \varphi(u)=\mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{n\geqslant 1}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\left(X_i-\kappa\right)<u\right), $$ and the generating function of $\varphi(u+1)$, where $u\in\mathbb{N}_0$,…
The two parameters Weibull function is used to describe the charged particle multiplicity distribution in $e^{+}e^{-}$ collisions at the highest available energy measured by TASSO and ALEPH experiments. The Weibull distribution has wide…
Power law-like size distributions are ubiquitous in astrophysical instabilities. There are at least four natural effects that cause deviations from ideal power law size distributions, which we model here in a generalized way: (1) a physical…
When a corrosive solution reaches the limits of a solid sample, a chemical fracture occurs. An analytical theory for the probability of this chemical fracture is proposed and confirmed by extensive numerical experiments on a two dimensional…
Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…
Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) are known to be unpredictable in time and position. A few (observationally) exceptional events have been observed, as GRB221009A that stands out for its fluence and peak flux, being orders of magnitude higher than…
Inspired by the double-debt problem in Japan where the mortgagor has to pay the remaining loan even if their house was destroyed by a catastrophic event, we model the lender's cash flow, by an exponential functional of a renewal-reward…
Based on recent results in extreme value theory, we use a new technique for the statistical estimation of distribution tails. Specifically, we use the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem, which gives a natural limit law for…
Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase--space. In this…
We consider the problem of describing excursion sets of a real-valued function $f$, i.e. the set of inputs where $f$ is above a fixed threshold. Such regions are hard to visualize if the input space dimension, $d$, is higher than 2. For a…
Many practical problems are related to the pointwise estimation of dis- tribution functions when data contains measurement errors. Motivation for these problems comes from diverse fields such as astronomy, reliability, quality control,…
Power-law distributions are essential in computational and statistical investigations of extreme events and complex systems. The usual technique to generate power-law distributed data is to first infer the scale exponent $\alpha$ using the…
Stretched exponential probability density functions (pdf), having the form of the exponential of minus a fractional power of the argument, are commonly found in turbulence and other areas. They can arise because of an underlying random…
Multiplicative self-decomposable laws describe random variables that can be decomposed into a product of a scaled-down version of themselves and an independent residual term. Shanbhag et al.~(1977) have shown that the gamma distribution is…
Floods rank among the costliest natural hazards, causing over USD 100 billion in insured losses between 2013 and 2023. In France, persistent deficits in the natural catastrophe scheme highlight the need for accurate, building-scale flood…
Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…