相关论文: Probabilities of concurrent extremes

Currently available models for spatial extremes suffer either from inflexibility in the dependence structures that they can capture, lack of scalability to high dimensions, or in most cases, both of these. We present an approach to spatial…

In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of locations is among the most challenging problems in computational statistics, and current approaches typically rely on less expensive…

We introduce a novel forecasting model for crop yields that explicitly accounts for spatio-temporal dependence and the influence of extreme weather and climatic events. Our approach combines Bayesian Structural Time Series for modeling…

Being the max-analogue of $\alpha$-stable stochastic processes, max-stable processes form one of the fundamental classes of stochastic processes. With the arrival of sufficient computational capabilities, they have become a benchmark in the…

The extremal index is a quantity introduced in extreme value theory to measure the presence of clusters of exceedances. In the dynamical systems framework, it provides important information about the dynamics of the underlying systems. In…

We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…

In this work, we propose a simulation-based estimation approach using generative neural networks to determine dependencies of precipitation maxima and their underlying uncertainty in time and space. Within the common framework of max-stable…

Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…

The stable-regenerative multiple-stable model has been shown recently to have distinct candidate extremal index and extremal index. To understand further this rare phenomenon, two more results are established here for the double-stable…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

We consider pricing weather derivatives for use as protection against weather extremes. The method described utilizes results from spatial statistics and extreme value theory to first model extremes in the weather as a max-stable process,…

Statistical analysis of max-stable processes used to model spatial extremes has been limited by the difficulty in calculating the joint likelihood function. This precludes all standard likelihood-based approaches, including Bayesian…

In this study, the cumulative effect of the empirical probability distribution of a random variable is identified as a factor that amplifies the occurrence of extreme events in datasets. To quantify this observation, a corresponding…

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…

We show that the probability of appearance of synchronisation in chaotic coupled map lattices is related to the distribution of the maximum of a certain observable evaluated along almost all orbit. We show that such distribution belongs to…

Clustering of extreme events can have profound and detrimental societal consequences. The extremal index, a number in the unit interval, is a key parameter in modelling the clustering of extremes. The study of extremal index often assumes a…