相关论文: Estimating viral infection parameters using Markov…

We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…

This lecture note provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for parameter estimation in epidemic models. Using the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental…

Assessing the practical identifiability of epidemic models is essential for determining whether parameters can be meaningfully estimated from observed data. Monte Carlo (MC) methods provide an accessible and intuitive framework; however,…

We study a dynamics of the epidemiological infection spreading at different values of the risk factor $\beta$ (a control parameter) with the using of dynamic Monte Carlo approach (DMC). In our toy model, the infection transmits due to…

This study aims to estimate the parameters of a stochastic exposed-infected epidemiological model for the transmission dynamics of notifiable infectious diseases, based on observations related to isolated cases counts only. We use the…

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive…

Global pandemics, such as the recent COVID-19 crisis, highlight the need for stochastic epidemic models that can capture the randomness inherent in the spread of disease. Such models must be accompanied by methods for estimating parameters…

We develop a Bayesian statistical model and estimation methodology based on Forward Projection Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo in order to perform the calibration of a high-dimensional non-linear system of Ordinary Differential Equations…

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…

Previously, it has been shown that maximum-entropy models of immune-repertoire sequence can be used to determine a person's vaccination status. However, this approach has the drawback of requiring a computationally intensive method to…

This paper is concerned with the application of recent statistical advances to inference of infectious disease dynamics. We describe the fitting of a class of epidemic models using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Variational Inference as…

In this paper, we begin our discussion with some of the well-known methods available in the literature for the estimation of the parameters of a univariate/multivariate stable distribution. Based on the available methods, a new hybrid…

The class of $\alpha$-stable distributions enjoys multiple practical applications in signal processing, finance, biology and other areas because it allows to describe interesting and complex data patterns, such as asymmetry or heavy tails,…

When analysing in vitro data, growth kinetics of influenza strains are often compared by computing their growth rates, which are sometimes used as proxies for fitness. However, analogous to mechanistic epidemic models, the growth rate can…

Recently, Andrieu, Doucet and Holenstein (2010) introduced a general framework for using particle filters (PFs) to construct proposal kernels for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This framework, termed Particle Markov chain Monte…

In this paper we propose to evaluate and compare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the parameters in a generalized extreme value model. We employed the Bayesian approach using traditional Metropolis-Hastings methods,…

Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…

In the gravitational-wave analysis of pulsar-timing-array datasets, parameter estimation is usually performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to explore posterior probability densities. We introduce an alternative procedure that…

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…