相关论文: Data-Driven Prediction of Thresholded Time Series …

In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…

The degree of predictability of large avalanche events in the directed sandpile model is studied. A waiting time based prediction strategy which exploits the local anticorrelation of large events is discussed. With this strategy we show…

High-resolution rainfall observations are crucial for weather forecasting, water management, and hazard mitigation. Traditional operational measurements are often biased and low-resolution, limiting their ability to capture local rainfall.…

Gridded estimated rainfall intensity values at very high spatial and temporal resolution levels are needed as main inputs for weather prediction models to obtain accurate precipitation forecasts, and to verify the performance of…

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Recently, many deep-learning techniques have been applied to various weather-related prediction tasks, including precipitation nowcasting (i.e., predicting precipitation levels and locations in the near future). Most existing…

Many natural phenomena exhibit power law behaviour in the distribution of event size. This scaling is successfully reproduced by Self Organized Criticality (SOC). On the other hand, temporal occurrence in SOC models has a Poisson-like…

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…

Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…

Modeling a precipitation field is challenging due to its intermittent and highly scale-dependent nature. Motivated by the features of high-frequency precipitation data from a network of rain gauges, we propose a threshold space-time $t$…

A new model validation and performance assessment tool is introduced, the sliding threshold of observation for numeric evaluation (STONE) curve. It is based on the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve technique, but instead of…

We study extreme events of avalanche activities in finite-size two-dimensional self-organized critical (SOC) models, specifically the stochastic Manna model (SMM) and the Bak-Tang-Weisenfeld (BTW) sandpile model. Employing the approach of…

Understanding the temporal dependence of precipitation is key to improving weather predictability and developing efficient stochastic rainfall models. We introduce an information-theoretic approach to quantify memory effects in discrete…

It is a common belief that power-law distributed avalanches are inherently unpredictable. This idea affects phenomena as diverse as evolution, earthquakes, superconducting vortices, stock markets, etc; from atomic to social scales. It…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…

We consider a stochastic sandpile where the sand-grains of unstable sites are randomly distributed to the nearest neighbors. Increasing the value of the threshold condition the stochastic character of the distribution is lost and a…

We have studied one-dimensional cellular automata with updating rules depending stochastically on the difference of the heights of neighbouring cells. The probability for toppling depends on a parameter lambda which goes to one with…

Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…

Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced…