相关论文: To Go Viral
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
Reactions to posts in an online social network show different dynamics depending on several textual features of the corresponding content. Do similar dynamics exist when images are posted? Exploiting a novel dataset of posts, gathered from…
Online popularity has enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems, the Wikipedia and an…
A key parameter in models for the spread of infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number $R_0$, which is the expected number of secondary cases a typical infected primary case infects during its infectious period in a large mostly…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n=861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective…
In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
The goal of this paper is to study the behaviour of view-count in YouTube. We first propose several bio-inspired models for the evolution of the view-count of YouTube videos. We show, using a large set of empirical data, that the view-count…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
In this paper we propose a deterministic mathematical model that attempts to explain the propagation of a rumor using SIRS type epidemiological models with temporary immunity and nonlinear incidence rate. In particular, we speculate about…
Quantifying the virality of cascades is an important question across disciplines such as the transmission of disease, the spread of information and the diffusion of innovations. An appropriate virality metric should be able to disambiguate…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
Online social networks provide a medium for citizens to form opinions on different societal issues, and a forum for public discussion. They also expose users to viral content, such as breaking news articles. In this paper, we study the…
A fundamental problem in network science is to predict how certain individuals are able to initiate new networks to spring up "new ideas". Frequently, these changes in trends are triggered by a few innovators who rapidly impose their ideas…
We study learning on social media with an equilibrium model of users interacting with shared news stories. Rational users arrive sequentially, observe an original story (i.e., a private signal) and a sample of predecessors' stories in a…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…
The share of videos in the internet traffic has been growing, therefore understanding how videos capture attention on a global scale is also of growing importance. Most current research focus on modeling the number of views, but we argue…