相关论文: Variance in System Dynamics and Agent Based Modell…

This paper presents a novel time-space SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model for simulating infectious disease dynamics in two interconnected regions. The model is formulated as a coupled reaction-diffusion system with boundary…

In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…

Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…

As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…

Pandemics involve the high transmission of a disease that impacts global and local health and economic patterns. The impact of a pandemic can be minimized by enforcing certain restrictions on a community. However, while minimizing infection…

The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…

The effective control of infectious diseases relies on accurate assessment of the impact of interventions, which is often hindered by the complex dynamics of the spread of disease. A Beta-Dirichlet switching state-space transmission model…

Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…

The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…

The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection…

An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…

Agent-based models have proven to be useful tools in supporting decision-making processes in different application domains. The advent of modern computers and supercomputers has enabled these bottom-up approaches to realistically model…

Mobility restriction is considered one of the main policies to contain COVID-10 spreading. However, there are multiple ways to reduce mobility via differentiated restrictions, and it is not easy to predict the actual impact on virus…

Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model…

Motivated by our intention to use SIR-type epidemiological models in the context of dynamic networks as provided by large-scale highly interacting inhomogeneous human crowds, we investigate in this framework possibilities to reduce the…

This paper seeks to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic based on daily published data from Worldometer website, using a time-dependent SIR model. Our findings indicate that this model fits well such data, for different chosen…

Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…

Agent-based models of disease transmission involve stochastic rules that specify how a number of individuals would infect one another, recover or be removed from the population. Common yet stringent assumptions stipulate interchangeability…

This paper revisits a longstanding problem of interest concerning the distributed control of an epidemic process on human contact networks. Due to the stochastic nature and combinatorial complexity of the problem, finding optimal policies…

This paper focuses on the analysis of a stochastic SAIRS-type epidemic model that explicitly incorporates the roles of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals in disease transmission dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers, often…