相关论文: Variance in System Dynamics and Agent Based Modell…

Recent statistics of malaria shows that over 200 million cases and estimated deaths of nearly half a million occur globally. Africa alone accounts for almost 90% of the cases. Several studies have been conducted to understand the disease…

We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…

Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…

Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…

Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…

The SIR pandemic model suffers from an unrealistic assumption: The rate of removal from the infectious class of individuals is assumed to be proportional to the number of infectious individuals. This means that a change in the rate of…

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical role of human behavior in influencing infectious disease transmission and the need for models capturing this complex dynamic. We present an agent-based model integrating an epidemiological…

Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…

Our recent experience with the COVID-19 pandemic amply shows that spatial effects like the mobility of agents and average interpersonal distance, together with the adaptation of agents, are very important in deciding the outcome of epidemic…

Self-adaptive dynamics occurs in many physical systems such as socio-economics, neuroscience, or biophysics. We formalize a self-adaptive modeling approach, where adaptation takes place within a set of strategies based on the history of the…

In this paper, we investigate the problem of mitigating epidemics by applying an event-triggered control strategy. We consider a susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model, which builds upon the foundational SIR model by…

We have derived the governing equations for an SIR model with delay terms in both the infectivity and recovery of the disease. The equations are derived by modelling the dynamics as a continuous time random walk, where individuals move…

Computer simulations have become an important tool across the biomedical sciences and beyond. For many important problems several different models or hypotheses exist and choosing which one best describes reality or observed data is not…

Infectious disease epidemiologists routinely fit stochastic epidemic models to time series data to elucidate infectious disease dynamics, evaluate interventions, and forecast epidemic trajectories. To improve computational tractability,…

The results of Kermack-McKendrick SIR model are planned to be reproduced by cellular automata (CA) lattice model. The CA algorithms are proposed to study the model of epidemic, systematically. The basic goal is to capture the effects of…

We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

Individual-based model (IBM) has been used to simulate and to design control strategies for dynamic systems that are subject to stochasticity and heterogeneity, such as infectious diseases. In the IBM, an individual is represented by a set…

In district-based elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts. In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body. The election result is based on the number of seats won by…

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with variable size of population is considered. We study optimal control problem for an SIR model with "vaccination" and "treatment" as controls. It is shown that an optimal control exists. We have…

We present a class of SEIR Markov chain models for infectious diseases observed over discrete time in a random human population living in a closed environment. The population changes over time through random births, deaths, and transitions…