相关论文: Simulation and estimation for the fractional Yule …

The thresholding of time series of activity or intensity is frequently used to define and differentiate events. This is either implicit, for example due to resolution limits, or explicit, in order to filter certain small scale physics from…

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

We consider a critical continuous-time branching process (a Yule process) in which the individuals independently execute symmetric $\alpha-$stable random motions on the real line starting at their birth points. Because the branching process…

This paper provides a probabilistic approach to solve linear equations involving Caputo and Riemann-Liouville type derivatives. Using the probabilistic interpretation of these operators as the generators of interrupted Feller processes, we…

Shapley-related techniques have gained attention as both global and local interpretation tools because of their desirable properties. However, their computation using conditional expectations is computationally expensive. Approximation…

In this paper, we consider a generalized birth-death process (GBDP) and examined its linear versions. Using its transition probabilities, we obtain the system of differential equations that governs its state probabilities. The distribution…

In this paper, we propose a novel generalisation of the signature of a path, motivated by fractional calculus, which is able to describe the solutions of linear Caputo controlled FDEs. We also propose another generalisation of the…

We present the elliptical processes -- a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsumes the Gaussian process and the Student-t process. This generalization includes a range of new fat-tailed behaviors yet retains computational…

This paper introduces the Generalized Fractional Compound Poisson Process (GFCPP), which claims to be a unified fractional version of the compound Poisson process (CPP) that encompasses existing variations as special cases. We derive its…

In this article we present very intuitive, easy to follow, yet mathematically rigorous, approach to the so called data fitting process. Rather than minimizing the distance between measured and simulated data points, we prefer to find such…

Anomalous transport in a tilted periodic potential is investigated numerically within the framework of the fractional Fokker-Planck dynamics via the underlying CTRW. An efficient numerical algorithm is developed which is applicable for an…

The objective of this paper is to establish a general asymptotic representation (\textit{GAR}) for a wide range of statistics, employing two fundamental processes: the functional empirical process (\textit{fep}) and the residual functional…

We suggest a general framework for simulation of the triplet $(X_T,\bar X_ T,\tau_T)$ (L\'evy process, its extremum, and hitting time of the extremum), and, separately, $X_T,\bar X_ T$ and pairs $(X_T,\bar X_ T)$, $(\bar X_ T,\tau_T)$,…

We compute the limit shapes of the Young diagrams of the minimal difference $p$ partitions and provide a simple physical interpretation for the limit shapes. We also calculate the asymptotic distribution of the largest part of the Young…

Fractional imputation (FI) is a relatively new method of imputation for handling item nonresponse in survey sampling. In FI, several imputed values with their fractional weights are created for each missing item. Each fractional weight…

Rare events are ubiquitous in many different fields, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate because few, if any, events are observed in a conventiona l simulation run. Over the past several decades, specialised simulation methods…

We present calypso, a parameter-conditioned stochastic surrogate model for circumbinary accretion flows. We represent the total and individual accretion time series in a PCA basis and model the resulting coefficients as draws from a…

Many important stochastic counting models can be written as general birth-death processes (BDPs). BDPs are continuous-time Markov chains on the non-negative integers and can be used to easily parameterize a rich variety of probability…

This paper provides a detailed introductory description of Subset Simulation, an advanced stochastic simulation method for estimation of small probabilities of rare failure events. A simple and intuitive derivation of the method is given…

In the Yule-Simon process, selection of words follows the preferential attachment mechanism, resulting in the power-law growth in the cumulative number of individual word occurrences. This is derived using mean-field approximation, assuming…