相关论文: A Metapopulation Model for Chikungunya Including P…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
Mathematical models represent one of the fundamental ways of studying nature. In special, epidemic models have shown to be particularly useful in the understanding of the course of diseases and in the planning effective control policies. A…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
Metapopulation (multipatch) models are widely used to study the patterns of spatial spread of epidemics. In this paper we study the impact of inter-patch connection weights on the predictions of these models. We contrast arbitrary, uniform…
Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several territories in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from South Florida to Brazil and the Caribbean is a highly connected…
Human mobility is one of the key factors at the basis of the spreading of diseases in a population. Containment strategies are usually devised on movement scenarios based on coarse-grained assumptions. Mobility phone data provide a unique…
We consider the spread of epidemics in technological and social networks. How do people react? Does awareness and cautious behavior help? We analyze these questions and present a dynamic model to describe the movement of individuals and/or…
In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
Metapopulation models are powerful tools for capturing the spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases. Models that explicitly account for traveler origins and destinations, such as Lagrangian metapopulation models, enable a detailed…
Human mobility forms the backbone of contact patterns through which infectious diseases propagate, fundamentally shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics and pandemics. While traditional models are often based on the assumption…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…
Metapopulation models have traditionally assessed epidemic dynamics by emphasizing local in situ interactions within defined subpopulations, often neglecting transmission occurring during mobility phases in itinere. Here, we extend the…
In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework that governs the evolution of epidemic dynamics, encompassing both intra-population dynamics and inter-population mobility within a metapopulation network. By linearizing this dynamical…
Climate change, which is largely linked to human activities, is already having a considerable impact on our societies. Based on current trends, climate change is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Beyond its impact on the pace of…
This work aims to provide an approach to the macroscopic modeling and simulation of pedestrian flow, coupled with contagion spreading, towards numerical investigation of the effect of certain, macro-control measures on epidemics transport…
One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…
We investigate a time-dependent spatial vector-host epidemic model with non-coincident domains for the vector and host populations. The host population resides in small non-overlapping sub-regions, while the vector population resides…
A mathematical model of Zika virus transmission incorporating human movement between rural areas and nearby forests is presented to investigate the role of human movement in the spread of Zika virus infections in human and mosquito…
Understanding how human mobility and information propagation influence the course of an epidemic remains a key challenge in digital epidemiology. In this work, we develop a new awareness-based, event-triggered epidemic model embedded within…