相关论文: The Evolution of the Cuban HIV/AIDS Network
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
HIV is a retrovirus that attacks the human immune system and can lead to death without proper treatment. In collaboration with the WHO and Wits University, we study how to improve the efficiency of HIV testing with the goal of eventual…
The origin of the unusual incubation period distribution in the development of AIDS is largely unresolved. A key factor in understanding the observed distribution of latency periods, as well as the occurrence of infected individuals not…
A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…
Local estimates of HIV-prevalence provide information that can be used to target interventions and consequently increase the efficiency of the resources. This closer-to-optimal allocation can lead to better health outcomes, including the…
The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the…
A simple model to encapsulate the essential growth properties of \emph{the web of human sexual contacts} is presented. In the model only heterosexual connection is considered and represented by a random growing bipartite graph where both…
A two-sex Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) is used to investigate the conditions under which the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may spread through heterosexual contacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. (The BRN is the expected number of new…
As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national levels. Currently, the epidemic…
In this paper, we propose an original complex network model for an epidemic problem in an heterogeneous geographical area. The complex network is constructed by coupling nonidentical instances of a HIV/AIDS epidemiological model for which a…
Homicide is without doubt one of Mexico's most important security problems, with data showing that this dismal kind of violence sky-rocketed shortly after the war on drugs was declared in 2007. Since then, violent war-like zones have…
Many ``real-world'' networks are clearly defined while most ``social'' networks are to some extent subjective. Indeed, the accuracy of empirically-determined social networks is a question of some concern because individuals may have…
The transmission through contacts among MSM (men who have sex with men) is one of the dominating contributors to HIV prevalence in industrialized countries. In Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, the MSM risk group has been traced…
We study the following model of disease spread in a social network. At first, all individuals are either infected or healthy. Next, in discrete rounds, the disease spreads in the network from infected to healthy individuals such that a…
This article introduces novel methodologies for estimating contextual exposure to HIV population viral load using GPS data. We propose a comprehensive analytical framework comprising (i) local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV population…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
Pathogen deep-sequencing is an increasingly routinely used technology in infectious disease surveillance. We present a semi-parametric Bayesian Poisson model to exploit these emerging data for inferring infectious disease transmission flows…