相关论文: Edge-based compartmental modeling for epidemic spr…

While most masks have a limited effect on personal protection, how effective are they for collective protection? How to enlighten the design of masks from the perspective of collective dynamics? In this paper, we assume three preferences in…

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in non trivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop…

In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

Complex networks with pairwise connections have been vastly used for the modeling of interactions within systems. Although these type of models are capable to capture rich structures and different phases within a great variety of…

Most epidemic models are spatially aggregate and the index which is most used for planning and policy numbers, the r number, typically refers to a single system of interest. Even if r numbers are calculated for each of adjacent areas,…

Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…

In this work we look at several mathematical models that have been constructed during the present pandemic to address dfferent issues of importance to public health policies about epidemic scenarios and thier causes. We start by briefly…

In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…

This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every…

This study investigates the utilization of various mathematical models for comprehending and managing outbreaks of infectious diseases, with a specific focus on how different distributions of incubation times influence predictions regarding…

An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…

We study in this paper a compartmental SIR model for a population distributed in a bounded domain D of $\mathbb{R}^d$, d= 1, 2, or 3. We describe a spatial model for the spread of a disease on a grid of D. We prove two laws of large…

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…

Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…

Stochastic epidemic models can estimate infection and removal rates, and derived quantities such as the basic reproductive number ($R_0$), when both infection and removal times are observed. In practice, however, removal times are often…

Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…

This paper is devoted to the study of a stochastic epidemiological model which is a variant of the SIR model to which we add an extra factor in the transition rate from susceptible to infected accounting for the inflow of infection due to…

Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…

We study a diffusive SIS epidemic model with the mass-action transmission mechanism and show, under appropriate assumptions on the parameters, the existence of multiple endemic equilibria (EE). Our results answer some open questions on…