相关论文: Universal Fluctuations of the FTSE100

We investigate the probability of observing a given pattern of $n$ rises and falls in a random stationary data series. The data are modelled as a sequence of $n+1$ independent and identically distributed random numbers. This probabilistic…

The global energy fluctuations of a low density gas granular gas in the homogeneous cooling state near its clustering instability are studied by means of molecular dynamics simulations. The relative dispersion of the fluctuations is shown…

An investigation of the distribution of finite time trajectory divergence is performed on an Atmospheric Global Circulation Model. The distribution of the largest local Lyapunov exponent shows a significant probability for negative values…

A statistical physics model for the time evolutions of stock portfolios is proposed. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins. The Hamiltonian of the system is introduced and is…

For $\alpha>0$ and $\sigma > 0$, we consider the following probability distribution on $\alpha\mathbb N_0$: $\pi_{\alpha,\sigma} = \exp \big(- \frac{\sigma}{{\alpha}^2}\big) \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{1}{n!}…

We propose a multi-scale stochastic volatility model in which a fast mean-reverting factor of volatility is built on top of the Heston stochastic volatility model. A singular pertubative expansion is then used to obtain an approximation for…

This paper describes the probabilistic behaviour of a random Sturmian word. It performs the probabilistic analysis of the recurrence function which can be viewed as a waiting time to discover all the factors of length $n$ of the Sturmian…

For $n$ assets and discrete-time rebalancing, the probability to complete a given schedule of investments and withdrawals is maximized over progressively measurable portfolio weight functions. Applications consider two assets, namely the…

We revisit the classical Merton consumption--investment problem when risky-asset returns are modeled by stochastic differential equations interpreted through a general $\alpha$-integral, interpolating between It\^{o}, Stratonovich, and…

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing…

We discuss the phenomenon of universal fluctuations in mesoscopic systems and nuclei. For this purpose we use Random Matrix Theory (RMT). The statistical $S$-matrix is used to obtain the physical observables in the case of Quantum Dots,…

The goal of this expository article is a fairly self-contained account of some averaging processes of functions along sequences of the form $(\alpha^n x)^{}_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$, where $\alpha$ is a fixed real number with $| \alpha | > 1$ and…

Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…

Let alpha,T>0. We study the asymptotic properties of a least squares estimator for the parameter alpha of a fractional bridge defined as dX_t=-alpha*X_t/(T-t)dt+dB_t, with t in [0,T) and where B is a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst…

Eternally inflating universes can contain thermalized regions with different values of the cosmological parameters. In particular, the spectra of density fluctuations should be different, because of the different realizations of quantum…

A new method is proposed to obtain the risk neutral probability of share prices without stochastic calculus and price modeling, via an embedding of the price return modeling problem in Le Cam's statistical experiments framework.…

Selfsimilar space-time fractal fluctuations are generic to dynamical systems in nature such as atmospheric flows, heartbeat patterns, population dynamics, etc. The physics of the long-range correlations intrinsic to fractal fluctuations is…

We show that time-dependent fluctuations $\{\Delta x\}$ in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. $\{\Delta x\}$ is the outcome of $N$…

The shape and tails of partial distribution functions (PDF) for a financial signal, i.e. the S&P500 and the turbulent nature of the markets are linked through a model encompassing Tsallis nonextensive statistics and leading to evolution…

We study local power fluctuations in numerical simulations of stationary, homogeneous, isotropic turbulence in two and three dimensions with Gaussian forcing. Due to the near-Gaussianity of the one-point velocity distribution, the…