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Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2013-09-11 Rémy Chicheportiche , Anirban Chakraborti

Measuring conditional dependencies among the variables of a network is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies some shortcomings of the existing dependency measures in detecting direct causal influences or their lack of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-06-05 Jalal Etesami , Kun Zhang , Negar Kiyavash

Recently established, directed dependence measures for pairs $(X,Y)$ of random variables build upon the natural idea of comparing the conditional distributions of $Y$ given $X=x$ with the marginal distribution of $Y$. They assign pairs…

When the copula of the conditional distribution of two random variables given a covariate does not depend on the value of the covariate, two conflicting intuitions arise about the best possible rate of convergence attainable by…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-05-17 François Portier , Johan Segers

This paper proposes the asymmetric linear double autoregression, which jointly models the conditional mean and conditional heteroscedasticity characterized by asymmetric effects. A sufficient condition is established for the existence of a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-22 Songhua Tan , Qianqian Zhu

Contextual situations are those in which seemingly "the same" random variable changes its identity depending on the conditions under which it is recorded. Such a change of identity is observed whenever the assumption that the variable is…

量子物理 · 物理学 2015-06-19 Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov , Janne V. Kujala

Regression on manifolds, and, more broadly, statistics on manifolds, has garnered significant importance in recent years due to the vast number of applications for non Euclidean data. Circular data is a classic example, but so is data in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-07-18 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Fabrice Gamboa , Leonardo Moreno

An equivalent condition for the product of elements of an independent random sample on a compact algebraic group converging in distribution to some random variable as the sample size increases is obtained. Namely, a limit distribution…

概率论 · 数学 2022-11-21 O. G. Styrt

We introduce the coverage correlation coefficient, a novel nonparametric measure of statistical association designed to quantifies the extent to which two random variables have a joint distribution concentrated on a singular subset with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-18 Xuzhi Yang , Mona Azadkia , Tengyao Wang

We present a framework for the theoretical analysis of ensembles of low-complexity empirical risk minimisers trained on independent random compressions of high-dimensional data. First we introduce a general distribution-dependent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-03 Henry W. J. Reeve , Ata Kaban

A measure of association is said to be collapsible over a set of baseline covariates if the marginal value of the measure of association is equal to a weighted average of the stratum-specific measures of association. In this paper, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-01-10 Anders Huitfeldt , Mats Julius Stensrud , Etsuji Suzuki

In the framework of semiparametric distribution regression, we consider the problem of comparing the conditional distribution functions corresponding to two samples. In contrast to testing for exact equality, we are interested in the (null)…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-12 Holger Dette , Kathrin Möllenhoff , Dominik Wied

The Gaussian copula is a powerful tool that has been widely used to model spatial and/or temporal correlated data with arbitrary marginal distributions. However, this kind of model can potentially be too restrictive since it expresses a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-30 Moreno Bevilacqua , Eloy Alvarado , Christian Caamaño-Carrillo

In this paper, we revisit the notion of partial copula, originally introduced to test conditional independence, highlighting its capability to represent the dependence between two random variables after removing their dependence with a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-26 Vinícius Litvinoff Justus , Felipe Fontana Vieira

We study the problem of maximizing the probability that (i) an electric component or financial institution $X$ does not default before another component or institution $Y$ and (ii) that $X$ and $Y$ default jointly within the class of all…

The asymptotic solution to the problem of comparing the means of two heteroscedastic populations, based on two random samples from the populations, hinges on the pivot underpinning the construction of the confidence interval and the test…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-10-30 Rajeshwari Majumdar , Suman Majumdar

`Distribution regression' refers to the situation where a response Y depends on a covariate P where P is a probability distribution. The model is Y=f(P) + mu where f is an unknown regression function and mu is a random error. Typically, we…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-02-04 Barnabas Poczos , Alessandro Rinaldo , Aarti Singh , Larry Wasserman

By the Lindeberg-L\'evy central limit theorem, standardized partial sums of a sequence of mutually independent and identically distributed random variables converge in law to the standard normal distribution. It is known that mutual…

概率论 · 数学 2025-04-08 Martin Raič

This paper develops an intuitive concept of perfect dependence between two variables of which at least one has a nominal scale. Perfect dependence is attainable for all marginal distributions. It furthermore proposes a set of dependence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-05 Jan-Lukas Wermuth

Classical epidemiology has focused on the control of confounding but it is only recently that epidemiologists have started to focus on the bias produced by colliders. A collider for a certain pair of variables (e.g., an outcome Y and an…