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Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

In this paper, we estimate the sparse dependence structure in the tail region of a multivariate random vector, potentially of high dimension. The tail dependence is modeled via a graphical model for extremes embedded in the H\"usler-Reiss…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-15 Phyllis Wan , Chen Zhou

Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is defined as…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-10-05 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

概率论 · 数学 2020-08-14 Krzysztof Zajkowski

Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary elliptical…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-12-21 Hans Manner , Johan Segers

We study the tail behavior of the distribution of the sum of asymptotically independent risks whose marginal distributions belong to the maximal domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. We impose conditions on the distribution of…

概率论 · 数学 2009-06-29 Abhimanyu Mitra , Sidney I. Resnick

In this paper we consider the product of two positive independent risks $Y_1$ and $Y_2$. If $Y_1$ is bounded and $Y_2$ has distribution in the Gumbel max-domain of attraction with some auxiliary function which is regularly varying at…

概率论 · 数学 2014-06-24 Krzysztof Dȩbicki , Julia Farkas , Enkelejd Hashorva

Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-21 Ning Sun , Chen Yang , Ričardas Zitikis

The Gumbel max-domain of attraction corresponds to a null tail index which do not distinguish the different tail weights that might exist between distributions within this class. The Weibull-type distributions form an important subgroup of…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-09-27 Marta Ferreira

We propose a new measure related with tail dependence in terms of correlation: quantile correlation coefficient of random variables X, Y. The quantile correlation is defined by the geometric mean of two quantile regression slopes of X on Y…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-03-19 Ji-Eun Choi , Dong Wan Shin

We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-27 Peter Tankov

In this paper, we consider the problem of the estimation of a Weibull tail-coefficient. In particular, we propose a regression model, from which we derive a bias-reduced estimator. This estimator is based on a least-squares approach. The…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-04-01 J. Diebolt , L. Gardes , S. Girard , A. Guillou

The class of Dirichlet random vectors is central in numerous probabilistic and statistical applications. The main result of this paper derives the exact tail asymptotics of the aggregated risk of powers of Dirichlet random vectors when the…

概率论 · 数学 2014-12-12 Enkelejd Hashorva

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positive associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-09-14 Juan-Juan Cai , Eni Musta

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

概率论 · 数学 2008-12-10 Christian Y. Robert , Johan Segers

Tail dependence plays an essential role in the characterization of joint extreme events in multivariate data. However, most standard tail dependence parameters assume continuous margins. This note presents a form of tail dependence suitable…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-02-04 Victory Idowu

We consider stationary sequences whose marginal tail is subexponential and lies in the Gumbel Maximum domain of attraction. Due to the extremely strong dependence, their extreme values are caused by multiple big values and are clustered in…

概率论 · 数学 2025-07-08 Zao-Li Chen

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

统计力学 · 物理学 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

The paper contains results in three areas: First we present a general estimate for tail probabilities of Gaussian quadratic forms with known expectation and variance. Thereafter we analyze the distribution of norms of complex Gaussian…

概率论 · 数学 2019-03-20 Georg Berschneider , Björn Böttcher

A network evolution with predicted tail and extremal indices of PageRank and the Max-Linear Model used as node influence indices in random graphs is considered. The tail index shows a heaviness of the distribution tail. The extremal index…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-28 Natalia Markovich