相关论文: A Monte Carlo Approach to Joe DiMaggio and Streaks…

A ball can be hit faster if it is projected without spin but it can be hit farther if it is projected with backspin. Measurements are presented in this paper of the tradeoff between speed and spin for a baseball impacting a baseball bat.…

We analyze the problem of discovering long cycles inside a graph. We propose and test two algorithms for this task. The first one is based on recent advances in statistical mechanics and relies on a message passing procedure. The second…

We present a simple, pedagogical introduction to the statistics of extreme values. Motivated by a string of record high temperatures in December 1998, we consider the distribution, averages and lifetimes for a simplified model of such…

We examine the prime gaps using a statistical approach. It is first shown that the Andrica's conjecture is true for half or more cases. Using the arguments of averages, it is further shown that Andrica's conjecture is true. We further…

We analyze how coaching strategies affect goal difference and home win probabilities using hand-coded Serie A match commentary (2011/12--2013/14). Our dataset captures in-game dynamics, referee actions, and team behavior. Applying…

The 21st century has seen an enormous growth in the development and use of approximate Bayesian methods. Such methods produce computational solutions to certain intractable statistical problems that challenge exact methods like Markov chain…

The diagrammatic Monte Carlo (Diag-MC) method is a numerical technique which samples the entire diagrammatic series of the Green's function in quantum many-body systems. In this work, we incorporate the flat histogram principle in the…

Individual performance metrics are commonly used to compare players from different eras. However, such cross-era comparison is often biased due to significant changes in success factors underlying player achievement rates (e.g. performance…

Monte Carlo simulations are one of the major tools in statistical physics, complex system science, and other fields, and an increasing number of these simulations is run on distributed systems like clusters or grids. This raises the issue…

We study a game in which one keeps flipping a coin until a given finite string of heads and tails occurs. We find the expected number of coin flips to end the game when the ending string consists of at most four maximal runs of heads or…

The extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and climate research. We have used records of the Be-10 concentration in polar ice to reconstruct the average sunspot…

We consider two-person sports where each rally is initiated by a \emph{server}, the other player (the \emph{receiver}) becoming the server when he/she wins a rally. Historically, these sports used a scoring based on the \emph{side-out…

Baseball is a game of strategic decisions including bullpen usage, pinch-hitting and intentional walks. Managers must adjust their strategies based on the changing state of the game in order to give their team the best chance of winning. In…

In the four major North American professional sports (baseball, basketball, football, and hockey), the primary purpose of the regular season is to determine which teams most deserve to advance to the playoffs. Interestingly, while the…

Sequential analysis encompasses simulation theories and methods where the sample size is determined dynamically based on accumulating data. Since the conceptual inception, numerous sequential stopping rules have been introduced, and many…

We consider an ergodic process on finitely many states, with positive entropy. Our first main result asserts that the distribution function of the normalized waiting time for the first visit to a small (i.e., over a long block) cylinder set…

Data analysis in HEP experiments often uses binned likelihood from data and finite Monte Carlo sample. Statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo sample has been introduced in Frequentist Inference in some literatures, but they are not suitable…

Fix $k\geq 2$, choose $\frac{\log n}{n^{(k-1)/k}}\leq p\leq 1-\Omega(\frac{\log^4 n}{n})$, and consider $G\sim G(n,p)$. For any pair of vertices $v,w\in V(G)$, we give a simple and precise formula for the expected number of steps that a…

Several problems with the diagnostic check suggested by Pena and Rodriguez [2002. A powerful portmanteau test of lack of fit for time series. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 97, 601-610.] are noted and an improved Monte-Carlo version of this test…

Suppose you look at today's stock prices and bet on the value of the first digit. One could guess that a fair bet should correspond to the frequency of $1/9 = 11.11%$ for each digit from 1 to 9. This is by no means the case, and one can…