相关论文: Aggregation of Risks and Asymptotic independence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference $\Delta \rho ^{X, Y}_\alpha := \rho _\alpha (X + Y) - \rho _\alpha (X)$ as $\alpha \rightarrow 1$, where $\rho_\alpha $ is a risk measure equipped with a confidence level parameter $0 <…

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positive associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of…

We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and light-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for local probabilities for the area and prove a local…

We provide asymptotic theory for the joint distribution of $X_{\mathrm{inv}}$ and $X_{\mathrm{des}}$, the numbers of inversions and descents of random permutations. Recently, D\"orr & Kahle (2022) proved that $X_{\mathrm{inv}}$,…

This paper studies the tail probability of weighted sums of the form $\sum_{i=1}^n c_i X_i$, where random variables $X_i$'s are either independent or pairwise quasi-asymptotical independent with heavy tails. Using $h$-insensitive function,…

In order to properly manage risk, practitioners must understand the aggregate risks they are exposed to. Additionally, to properly price policies and calculate bonuses the relative riskiness of individual business units must be well…

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the marginal maximum likelihood empirical Bayes posterior distribution in general setting. First we characterize the set where the maximum marginal likelihood estimator is located with high…

A bivariate random vector can exhibit either asymptotic independence or dependence between the largest values of its components. When used as a statistical model for risk assessment in fields such as finance, insurance or meteorology, it is…

Random deflated risk models have been considered in recent literatures. In this paper, we investigate second-order tail behavior of the deflated risk X=RS under the assumptions of second-order regular variation on the survival functions of…

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

We consider random vectors $X$ that satisfy the equation in law $X=AX+B$, where $A$ is a given random diagonal matrix and $B$ a given random vector, both independent of $X$. It is well known by the works of Kesten and Goldie that the…

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of the extremes of a sequence of generalized Oppenheim random variables. Particularly, we establish conditions under which some normalized extremes of sequences arising from Oppenheim…

In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…

Let X be a generalised symmetrised Dirichlet random vector in R^k, and let u_n be thresholds such that P{X> u_n} tends to 0 as n goes infinity. In this paper we derive an exact asymptotic expansion of P{X> u_n} assuming that the associated…

Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of…

In this paper, we study a multidimensional risk model with a common renewal process and in the presence of a constant interest force. The claim sizes are independent and identically distributed random vectors, with the distribution of…

One of the central objectives of modern risk management is to find a set of risks where the probability of multiple simultaneous catastrophic events is negligible. That is, risks are taken only when their joint behavior seems sufficiently…

Complex networks in different areas exhibit degree distributions with heavy upper tail. A preferential attachment mechanism in a growth process produces a graph with this feature. We herein investigate a variant of the simple preferential…

For a stochastic difference equation $D_n=A_nD_{n-1}+B_n$ which stabilises upon time we study tail distribution asymptotics of $D_n$ under the assumption that the distribution of $\log(1+|A_1|+|B_1|)$ is heavy-tailed, that is, all its…

Consider the random walk $S_n=\xi_1+...+\xi_n$ with independent and identically distributed increments and negative mean $\mathbf E\xi=-m<0$. Let $M=\sup_{0\le i} S_i$ be the supremum of the random walk. In this note we present derivation…