相关论文: Conservative statistical post-election audits

We study a model of temporal voting where there is a fixed time horizon, and at each round the voters report their preferences over the available candidates and a single candidate is selected. Prior work has adapted popular notions of…

There are several estimators of conditional probability from observed frequencies of features. In this paper, we propose using the lower limit of confidence interval on posterior distribution determined by the observed frequencies to…

Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. This is particularly important for the elections in which results affect the economy of a sizable population. A better prediction of the true…

A collection of races in a single election can be audited as a group by auditing a random sample of batches of ballots and combining observed discrepancies in the races represented in those batches in a particular way: the maximum…

Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) offer a statistical guarantee: if a full manual tally of the paper ballots would show that the reported election outcome is wrong, an RLA has a known minimum chance of leading to a full manual tally. RLAs…

Presidential primaries are a critical part of the United States Presidential electoral process, since they are used to select the candidates in the Presidential election. While methods differ by state and party, many primaries involve…

We compare and contrast fourteen measures that have been proposed for the purpose of quantifying partisan gerrymandering. We consider measures that, rather than examining the shapes of districts, utilize only the partisan vote distribution…

When testing multiple hypothesis in a survey --e.g. many different source locations, template waveforms, and so on-- the final result consists in a set of confidence intervals, each one at a desired confidence level. But the probability…

Several measures of partisan bias are reviewed for single member districts with two dominant parties. These include variants of the simple bias that considers only deviation of seats from 50% at statewide 50% vote. Also included are…

In this paper, we develop a simple approach for testing multiple statistical hypotheses based on the observations of a number of probability ratios enumerated consecutively with respect to the index of hypotheses. Explicit and tight bounds…

We consider election scenarios with incomplete information, a situation that arises often in practice. There are several models of incomplete information and accordingly, different notions of outcomes of such elections. In one well-studied…

Quantifying uncertainty in detected changepoints is an important problem. However it is challenging as the naive approach would use the data twice, first to detect the changes, and then to test them. This will bias the test, and can lead to…

We consider a type of pull voting suitable for discrete numeric opinions which can be compared on a linear scale, for example, 1 ('disagree strongly'), 2 ('disagree'), $\ldots,$ 5 ('agree strongly'). On observing the opinion of a random…

In this paper, we experimentally compare major approval-based multiwinner voting rules. To this end, we define a measure of similarity between two equal-sized committees subject to a given election. Using synthetic elections coming from…

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

An implicit association test is a human psychological test used to measure subconscious associations. While widely recognized by psychologists as an effective tool in measuring attitudes and biases, the validity of the results can be…

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Win statistics, including the win ratio, net benefit, and win odds, summarize treatment effects on hierarchical composite endpoints by sequentially comparing patient pairs on component outcomes ordered by clinical importance, proceeding to…

In real-world elections where voters cast preference ballots, voters often provide only a partial ranking of the candidates. Despite this empirical reality, prior social choice literature frequently analyzes fairness criteria under the…

We show how to use automated computation of election margins to assess the number of votes that would need to change in order to alter a parliamentary outcome for single-member preferential electorates. In the context of increasing…