相关论文: Conservative statistical post-election audits
Sequential decision making significantly speeds up research and is more cost-effective compared to fixed-n methods. We present a method for sequential decision making for stratified count data that retains Type-I error guarantee or false…
Convergence results for averages of independent replications of counting processes are established in a $p$-variation setting and under certain assumptions. Such convergence results can be combined with functional differentiability results…
Correlated proportions arise in longitudinal (panel) studies. A typical example is the ``opinion swing'' problem: ``Has the proportion of people favoring a politician changed after his recent speech to the nation on TV?''. Since the same…
We introduce the notion of {\em Distance Restricted Manipulation}, where colluding manipulator(s) need to compute if there exist votes which make their preferred alternative win the election when their knowledge about the others' votes is a…
Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…
We consider a statistical test whose p-value can only be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. We are interested in deciding whether the p-value for an observed data set lies above or below a given threshold such as 5%. We want to…
Multi-winner voting is the process of selecting a fixed-size set of representative candidates based on voters' preferences. It occurs in applications ranging from politics (parliamentary elections) to the design of modern computer…
U.S. elections rely heavily on computers such as voter registration databases, electronic pollbooks, voting machines, scanners, tabulators, and results reporting websites. These introduce digital threats to election outcomes. Risk-limiting…
It is increasingly common to collect pre-post data with pseudonyms or self-constructed identifiers. On survey responses from sensitive populations, identifiers may be made optional to encourage higher response rates. The ability to match…
Coalitional manipulation in voting is considered to be any scenario in which a group of voters decide to misrepresent their vote in order to secure an outcome they all prefer to the first outcome of the election when they vote honestly. The…
We consider the problem of hypotheses testing with the basic simple hypothesis: observed sequence of points corresponds to stationary Poisson process with known intensity against a composite one-sided parametric alternative that this is a…
We analyze Assessment Voting, a new two-round voting procedure that can be applied to binary decisions in democratic societies. In the first round, a randomly-selected number of citizens cast their vote on one of the two alternatives at…
In finite population causal inference exact randomization tests can be constructed for sharp null hypotheses, i.e. hypotheses which fully impute the missing potential outcomes. Oftentimes inference is instead desired for the weak null that…
Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…
Majority voting is considered an effective method to enhance chain-of-thought reasoning, as it selects the answer with the highest "self-consistency" among different reasoning paths (Wang et al., 2023). However, previous chain-of-thought…
When scholars suspect units are dependent on each other within clusters but independent of each other across clusters, they employ cluster-robust standard errors (CRSEs). Nevertheless, what to cluster over is sometimes unknown. For…
A common, though not recommended statistical practice is to report confidence intervals if and only if they exclude a null value of 0. The resulting filtered confidence intervals generally do not have their nominal confidence level. More…
Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) guarantee a high probability of correcting incorrect reported outcomes before the outcomes are certified. The most efficient use ballot-level comparison, comparing the voting system's interpretation of individual…
We present a method and software for ballot-polling risk-limiting audits (RLAs) based on Bernoulli sampling: ballots are included in the sample with probability $p$, independently. Bernoulli sampling has several advantages: (1) it does not…
Several election districts in the US have recently moved to ranked-choice voting (RCV) to decide the results of local elections. RCV allows voters to rank their choices, and the results are computed in rounds, eliminating one candidate at a…