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A layered graph $G^\times$ is the Cartesian product of a graph $G = (V,E)$ with the linear graph $Z$, e.g. $Z^\times$ is the 2D square lattice $Z^2$. For Bernoulli percolation with parameter $p \in [0,1]$ on $G^\times$ one intuitively would…

We study limit theorems for partial sums of instantaneous functions of a homogeneous Markov chain on a general state space. The summands are heavy-tailed and the limits are stable distributions. The conditions imposed on the transition…

This paper deals with optimal prediction in a regime-switching model driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. We extend existing results for geometric Brownian motion by deriving optimal stopping strategies that depend on the current…

For transitive Markov subshifts over countable alphabets, this note ensures that a dense subclass of locally H\"older continuous potentials admits at most a single periodic probability as a maximizing measure. We resort to concepts…

This work focuses on off-policy evaluation (OPE) with function approximation in infinite-horizon undiscounted Markov decision processes (MDPs). For MDPs that are ergodic and linear (i.e. where rewards and dynamics are linear in some known…

We prove the first Chernoff-Hoeffding bounds for general nonreversible finite-state Markov chains based on the standard L_1 (variation distance) mixing-time of the chain. Specifically, consider an ergodic Markov chain M and a weight…

Many economic models feature monotone Markov dynamics on state spaces that may be noncompact. Establishing existence, uniqueness, and stability of stationary distributions in such settings has required a patchwork of sufficient conditions,…

We provide a large deviations analysis of deadlock phenomena occurring in distributed systems sharing common resources. In our model transition probabilities of resource allocation and deallocation are time and space dependent. The process…

Markov regime switching models have been used in numerous empirical studies in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing the number of regimes in Markov regime switching…

In this short note we prove ``effective" geometric ergodicity (i.e a Perron-Frobenius theorem) for Markov chains in random mixing dynamical environment satisfying a random non-uniform version of the Doeblin condition. Effectivity here means…

We consider continuous-time Markov chains on integers which allow transitions to adjacent states only, with alternating rates. We give explicit formulas for probability generating functions, and also for means, variances and state…

We show that a shift space on a finite alphabet with a non-uniform specification property can be modeled by a strongly positive recurrent countable-state Markov shift to which every equilibrium state lifts. In addition to uniqueness of the…

A family $\{Q_{\beta}\}_{\beta \geq 0}$ of Markov chains is said to exhibit $\textit{metastable mixing}$ with $\textit{modes}$ $S_{\beta}^{(1)},\ldots,S_{\beta}^{(k)}$ if its spectral gap (or some other mixing property) is very close to the…

We connect the rare fluctuations of an Equilibrium (EQ) process and the typical fluctuations of a nonequilibrium (NE) stationary process. In the framework of large deviation theory, this observation allows us to introduce NE thermodynamic…

The continuous random energy model (CREM) is a toy model of spin glasses on $\{0,1\}^N$ that, in the limit, exhibits an infinitely hierarchical correlation structure. We give two polynomial-time algorithms to approximately sample from the…

We consider the random Markov matrix obtained by assigning i.i.d. non-negative weights to each edge of the complete oriented graph. In this study, the weights have unbounded first moment and belong to the domain of attraction of an…

Based on information theory, we present a method to determine an optimal Markov approximation for modelling and prediction from time series data. The method finds a balance between minimal modelling errors by taking as much as possible…

Negative differential mobility is the phenomenon in which the velocity of a particle decreases when the force driving it increases. We study this phenomenon in Markov jump models where a particle moves in the presence of walls that act as…

Fix some $p\in[0,1]$ and a positive integer $n$. The discrete Bak-Sneppen model is a Markov chain on the space of zero-one sequences of length $n$ with periodic boundary conditions. At each moment of time a minimum element (typically, zero)…

We consider Markov jump processes on a graph described by a rate matrix that depends on various control parameters. We derive explicit expressions for the static responses of edge currents and steady-state probabilities. We show that they…