相关论文: Relating Recent Infection Prevalence to Incidence …

In this paper, we focus on susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on metapopulation networks, where nodes represent subpopulations, and where agents diffuse and interact. Recent studies suggest that heterogeneous network structure…

There have been reports of correlation between estimates of prevalence and test accuracy across studies included in diagnostic meta-analyses. It has been hypothesized that this unexpected association arises because of certain biases…

We formulate and analyze a novel hypothesis testing problem for inferring the edge structure of an infection graph. In our model, a disease spreads over a network via contagion or random infection, where the random variables governing the…

Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks…

We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who recovered from the disease as quickly as…

A primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number of new infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There…

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) consists in the use of an antiretroviral medication to prevent the acquisition of HIV infection by uninfected individuals and has recently demonstrated to be highly efficacious for HIV prevention. We propose…

Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic compartmental model of re-infection…

In conducting preliminary analysis during an epidemic, data on reported disease cases offer key information in guiding the direction to the in-depth analysis. Models for growth and transmission dynamics are heavily dependent on preliminary…

Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…

Respondent-driven sampling is a form of link-tracing network sampling, which is widely used to study hard-to-reach populations, often to estimate population proportions. Previous treatments of this process have used a with-replacement…

Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…

The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…

A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…

There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…

When surveillance data of infectious disease incidence (e.g. weekly case counts) are disaggregated by demographic indicators, disparities in long-run health outcomes between these groups become apparent. Accurate identification of high-risk…

The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…

In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…

Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…

We developed a nonlinear differential equation model to explore the dynamics of relapse phenomena. Our incidence rate function is formulated, taking inspiration from recent adaptive algorithms. It incorporates contact behavior for…